NYT: Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows

[RidinWithHarris]

14. Not at all related

We have a very slim 51 seat majority in the Senate. In this cycle more incumbent Democrats are in tough fights than incumbent Republicans.

We're definitely losing one seat in WV with Machin retiring from the Senate.

We can't lose even one more seat unless we can compensate for any such loss with a surprise red-to-blue flip.

Montana is, unfortunately, not looking good for Jon Tester. Montana is very red of late. It's more of a surprise Tester has held his seat this long than it's a surprise his luck might not hold out this time around.

Our best looking compensatory pick-ups in TX and FL aren't looking to hopeful either.

I still hold out hope, but this is a very, very different situation from the failed 2022 red wave (during which, by the way, we still lost control of the House, but not by the big margin many expected).