Trump has Paid for Many of the Swing State Polls used by 538 [View all]

[Mr.WeRP]

If you look at the National vs. Swing State polls, you might notice a pattern.

Nationally Harris is winning by about 2.5-3 points and in many of the swing states, Trump is ahead by a small margin.

When you look at the swing state polls where Trump is ahead, one name shows up multiple times with multiple sponsors.

Fabrizio

If you look at the National polls, only one sponsor appears: The Wall Street Journal. These national polls stopped in mid August.

If you look at say, Michigan, Fabrizio is partnered with multiple other pollsters in various combinations. The sponsor varies but does include Trump himself.

For example, in Michigan, you have the following combinations:
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO
- Fabrizio Ward
- Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research

While these have different sponsors, 538 considers these separate polls even though they are performed by the same firm.

These are true in each of the swing state polls. The number of times Fabrizio is used outnumbers all other pollsters in each state.

Now, consider the sponsorship of this pollster. According to OpenSecrets, Trump and Republicans have paid this pollster more than $4 million in this election cycle as of July 16th of this year with Trump spending about 75% of that total. See: https://www.opensecrets.org/campaign-expenditures/vendor?cycle=2024&vendor=Fabrizio%2C+Lee+%26+Assoc

I expect to see that number more than doubled when the next batch of FEC filings are made.

As many analysts have noted: Trump is doing this to set the pretext for him to claim the election is stolen when he loses. Always follow the money. Remember, there is only one poll that matters and that is happening now through early voting and concludes on November 5th. As Obama says, don't boo, VOTE!