My Fiscal Cliff Prediction [View all]
We're going over and I don't think that's such a bad thing.
Some people will get hurt for the first week to 10 days, including the 2,000,000 people on long term unemployment (greater than 6 months). However, that can be fixed, retroactively, if the Republicans agree to it in a package.
Tax cuts, which start at under $250,000 will pass within the first week of the new Congress. Republicans can't vote against that. Spending cuts (without entitlements) will be instituted and a 1 year agreement on extending the debt ceiling will also happen.
What will stay is the estate tax increase, a large increase in capital gains and a far more progressive income tax system. The middle class will not get out of this completely unscathed, as we will see the return of the "payroll tax" for Social Security and Medicare.
This will be done without the 55 or so Republican teabaggers, which will signal Boehner's final stint as House Speaker.
Let's see how close I come to being correct on this.