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Response to graham4anything (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 3, 2013, 08:17 PM

3. I don't think that's true

Don't have all the numbers at my fingertips, but OH provides a good example. Obama won the state cleanly and got it's 18 electoral votes; however, Romney won 11 of the 16 districts. So on election night, that would have been 11 ECs for Romney and only 9 for Obama (the 7 districts he won plus the 2 at large). PA would have broken the same way.

Or you could look at it this way: The current House is 200 Dems, 233 GOP, plus DC (Dem) and two unfilled (but for the sake of argument let's make them Dem). If each of those represents one EC, and then Obama and Romney each get the at-large ECs in the states they won, (54 for Obama, 48 for Romney), then Romney wins, 281-257. We know there wasn't a perfect 1-to-1 correspondence between district rep votes and pres votes but, with all the gerrymandering, I'm willing to bet it was pretty close.

Again, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but given that we took EVERY big and medium-size state except for TX, NC, and GA, I can't help but think we would lose more in this scenario than we would win. It would make for a much, much closer race.

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