General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Stop it, stop saying Social Security needs reform, you are a Democrat, right? [View all]FogerRox
(13,211 posts)Low cost, Intermediate cost, High cost and a Stochastic model. The Intermediate cost scenario says SS will be broke in 2033, thats probably the date your familiar with. But the Intermediate and high cost scenarios are very conservative estimates based on unrealistic assumptions, like GDP growth staying at 2.1%, like 20 more years of recession. and unemployment staying put.
The low cost scenario relies on 2.8% GDP growth, lots of job creation and some wage growth. Nothing too improbable, and all in line with historical trends.
This chart I took from the 2012 Social Security Trustees report, the link is on the bottom. It shows the different scenarios and the dates that trust fund depletion is predicted, except where I collapsed the chart to fit on a page.