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Response to Skidmore (Reply #5)

Thu Jun 27, 2013, 03:34 PM

6. My reply, or the predictive market thing?

I remember at the time several stories about the wisdom of crowds motivated by the risk to their imaginary cash investments. You can even feel a certain truthiness to it, but at the time I was wondering how crowd facing the same lack of hard information as a single person could choose an outcome any more wisely.

Certainly Intrade had its moments around elections. Perhaps there was use if you just asked the right kind of question and took the trading as some kind of meta-poll. I just hope we didn't spent TOO much cash on that.

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