General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Please understand, any U.S. military action in Syria means that we're being dragged into a proxy war [View all]FarCenter
(19,429 posts)I don't think that Iran would get embroiled in the war.
A win by the Jihadists would weaken the Shiite position strategically, causing Iran to retrench, move closer to the Russians and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well as redouble efforts to get nuclear arms.
On the other hand, a win by the Jihadists would establish a Sunni Arab Caliphate in Damascus with the objective of overthrowing Jordan and cooperating with Saudi Arabia. It would not be dominated by the Saudi King, but the King would have no alternative but to ally himself with the Jihadists.
Ultimately, Israel will find itself surrounded by four strong Sunni Islamic powers centered on Ankara, Damascus, Riyadh, and Cairo. Old colonial boundaries of Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon will be erased, and the Sunni parts of Iraq may de facto join the Damascus power.
This new alignment will be more dangerous to Israel than Iran.