"The Republican Party's Plan to Retake the Senate Is Falling Apart" [View all]

[applegrove]

The Republican Party's Plan to Retake the Senate Is Falling Apart

BY DANNY VINIK at the New Republic

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117466/2014-midterm-odds-republicans-chances-taking-senate-are-falling?utm_campaign=mostpopular&utm_content=4935431&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

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The biggest Obamacare story of the summer and fall is likely to be "rate shock": The notion, pushed by conservatives, that health-care premiums will spike for people who buy coverage on their own. The likelihood of this is impossible to predict and will likely vary by state. Some will see large increases and others will not. Before the ACA, the annual changes in premiums were unpredictable, too—sometimes increasing by single digits, sometimes by double digits. Obamacare will undoubtedly take the blame for any large increases in rates this year. Nevertheless, there have been signs the past few days that conservative warnings of massive rate shock may never materialize.

Finally, on the economy, there are signs that the recovery is picking up too. The economic data has improved since a rough first two months of the year. Jobless claims fell to a post-crisis low last week, and for the first time since September 2008, no state has an unemployment rate above nine percent.

Of course, plenty of other things could happen in the next few months to hurt Democrats' chances of retaining the Senate. Russia could cut off oil and gas exports to Europe, sending gasoline prices skyrocketing and crushing the recovery. Republicans could be right about widespread rate shock. Half of the eight million Obamacare signups could decide not to pay their premiums. These developments would likely hand the Senate to Republicans, given that they already have a structural advantage.

For all these reasons, the odds are very low that Democrats pick up seats in the Senate, but the odds that Mitch McConnell becomes the majority leader in 2015 are falling as well. At the end of his piece, Trende warns that a poor performance by the GOP this year could lead to a filibuster-proof Democratic majority in 2017. For Democrats who argue that these midterms are meaningless because Obama’s legislative agenda is already dead, it’s time to reconsider.





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