Ed Gillespie, George Bush's Florida svengali,

[onenote]

3. No, it's not tied.

Warner has upped his lead to around 14,000 votes. Gillespie could ask for a recount (not automatic) and he faces the prospect of having to pay for it. If you recall (assuming you follow Virginia elections), Mark Herring held a miniscule lead of a few hundred votes (out of 2.2 million) for state attorney general last year. It went to a recount and Herring's victory was confirmed. If the repubs couldn't overturn a couple of hundred vote margin in the Herring recount, they aren't overturning Warner's 14,000 vote margin and while they may decide to demand a recount, i'm betting against it since they won't want to spend the money.

As for the polling, Warner's poll numbers for the past month have shown him with a decent lead, but also have shown him barely getting 50 percent during that period -- on October 31, he was, averaging the most recent polls, below 49 percent. That means that a lot of voters were undecided and that there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for the incumbent. Anytime an incumbent can't break 50 percent in the pre-election polling, you can expect a closer race than what a superficial glance at the polls might suggest.