I'll Just Say It Now -- Hillary Can't Win

[Awsi Dooger]

205. Hillary can win a squeaker

The 2016 cycle figures to be very balanced. Open races after two terms are often razor tight, like 1960, 1968, 1976 and 2000. That's always the first place to look, the situational landscape and not the specific candidates. Voters tend to tire of the party in charge after two terms. But they won't flatly reject that party if the ratings are decent for the exiting president. Obama's standing in mid 2016 greatly impacts our opportunity. Notice I wrote mid, not late. You can't make up ground at the last minute. Obama needs to restore strength and popularity in late 2015 at the worst and then carry it into 2016 without faltering.

If Obama is still in the low 40s or thereabouts 20 months from now, then anyone we nominate is toast.

Hillary as a known quantity for 20+ years has a low range of variance in her approval number. She is not a candidate to budge much above 50%, or much below low 40s unless she makes a gaffe that makes no sense, given her strengths.

The demographics work in our favor as fewer whites make up the electorate. It likely will be down to 70-72%. Women will be roughly 54% of the voters in 2016. Our reluctant segments who dependably sit out midterms will show up in a general election for presidency.

All of that potentially helps Hillary and state by state she is okay, certainly not worse than any other Democrat. Since we've ignored the governorships lately our bench is ridiculously weak. To anyone opposing Hillary's candidacy I can't wait to hear their alternatives. No doubt the modern day version of Dennis Kucinich. Pipe dream all the way.

IMO, we screwed up in 2008. Hillary was a cinch in that climate. The base preferred Obama and rolled the dice. We ended up with a guy who is considered weak 6 years later. That reputation defines the party going forward. Hillary would have been loud and polarizing but anything but weak.

The issue with electing Hillary is what happens in 2020 if she wins. Hard to imagine 4 straight Democratic terms. But if she loses then Republicans are all but a living cinch in 2020. I'll say right now that if a Republican is elected in 2016 then that same guy will receive 54+% of the popular vote four years later. He will be in the most favorable situation imaginable, as an incumbent with his party in power only one term. Reagan and Clinton won huge in that spot, and Bush survived despite an unpopular war. After two straight relatively tight contests in that favorable scenario it makes sense for the next example to be a waltz.

We can't afford for Hillary to lose. Otherwise it's 2024 before we're viable again. Who knows where Republicans will take the country in the meantime. Anyone here who pouts over a Hillary candidacy and insists they won't vote for her should grasp that reality right now. The big picture dictates outcomes, not day to day trivia.