General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Are POLLS reliable these days? [View all]Savannahmann
(3,891 posts)Polling showed the Republicans winning 52 Senate seats, they're probably going to have 54. Polling gives you a glance at things, and the one thing to watch is historical trends.
Polling showed the Democrats at a huge disadvantage, a truth that most people ignored until the week or at most two weeks before the election. The results were pretty close generally speaking.
I have no idea how the Democrats got the internal poll numbers they did. As near as I can tell they were questioning people working in the campaign headquarters. "Good news, the latest poll is in and you're the favorite by twenty points! We asked everyone in the building and they all said they're voting for you."
Polling is especially useful when you start looking at issues. The big issue ignored by Democrats was the economy. Some here will tell you that the people should have been told of the great accomplishments in the economy. The problem is you don't have to tell people the economy is going well, they see that on their own. The thing you have to tell them is your plans to improve the economy, when a majority think it isn't going well.
Yes, Polling is reasonably accurate, and yes, it is useful. If nothing else it lets us know what the people are thinking, and what they think is important. The ultimate poll is the election. The fact that we lost there, as well as in the polls shows how much we should be keeping an eye on them.