General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Are POLLS reliable these days? [View all]Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)because they have "committed" to vote,
versus people who could vote but might not?
It's about the voter making a commitment and then following thru?
That seems like a reasonable assumption.
MY curiosity though lies not in algorithms
or tweaking the machinery.
MY curiosity is in how a small sample,
say hundreds or a few thousand "likely voters"
from specific geographic areas can be extended to
make assumptions about MILLIONS of voters?
Why should we believe that say 1000 people in any area
would be representative of millions of likely voters?
Also how can we know that polling data is not impacting voter behavior?
Might not that idea explain why likely voter assessments
become much more accurate late in the election cycle?
What if polling data drives voter opinion significantly
and ultimately impacts election results?
IS polling valid or is it a campaign technique?