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Igel

(36,561 posts)
35. "If there were" are the important words and you slide past them with such finesse.
Thu Jan 1, 2015, 12:02 PM
Jan 2015

The sanctions had little effect. They had some, to be sure, but they were already showing signs of cracking. Still are.

The reasons the sanctions *will* have a larger effect are because the price of oil has declined. It means that when Russia turns to the West for help, he'll be blocked. That time is near, but not quite yet. Countries first exhaust their internal means. However, blocking him when he turns to the West might be "doing something stupid" because I suspect China will find it handy to buy a lien on the property adjacent to theirs, right over the backyard fence. Let's here it for a stronger, more influential China--esp. one whose influence over Russia places it in a position of having influence next to Europe.


For all the anti-fracking talk, increased fossil fuel production in North America is a large part of the reason for the price decline. Oops. "I oppose what will make the sanctions work better." The push for renewables helps that, but OPEC is really out not to punish Russia (although given Russia's support for Syria and Iran, let's not minimize that more than appropriate) so much as to retain market share in the long term by diminishing N. American production. They're counting on the lack of production and the lack of need for production to help pro-regulation types to re-ban a lot of drilling and to cap fracking and domestic production here and in Canada. Then to uncap them would be a political fight, during which oil prices can fund the Saudis and other petrostates.

Then there's the rest of the reason for the oil price decline: The rest of the world's economy is pretty sucky. Not horrible. Just close to flatlining. "I support why the sanctions work. Because most of the world's economy is torpid." Oops, again. It again relies on the absence of good things happening to a lot of other people.

If the economies of the world's countries were doing as we'd like, if we had our way with fracking, the sanctions would be weak, indeed. Obama lucked out by not getting what he wanted on two fronts, at least not yet, so the sanctions *will* eventually have a big role to play.

As with Syria, sometimes Obama is lucky, claims that it's innate cleverness and smarts, and some people don't see the difference because they already think Obama is clever and smart so saying he's "lucky" is just taking away what's already his awesomely deserved due and glory as a member of whatever group the "some people" involved belong to. It's what every group of adherents does with their guy in office--all good things are his personal responsibility and shows the leader's inherent wisdom; all bad things are the enemies' responsibility and shows their inherent evil.

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Yes, I remember.. some on here were siding with his "political opponents who claimed he had been Cha Dec 2014 #1
happy new year, cha! arely staircase Dec 2014 #4
Cheers to 2015, arely! Cha Dec 2014 #5
+1 Tarheel_Dem Jan 2015 #60
The sanctions has had an effect on Russia and Putin thought he could cover it up but the facts are Thinkingabout Dec 2014 #2
K Cha Dec 2014 #3
The sanctions have had no effect. former9thward Jan 2015 #6
They have had an affect - just as the op stated... Lucky Luciano Jan 2015 #12
"If there were" are the important words and you slide past them with such finesse. Igel Jan 2015 #35
You actually think there was no communication by POTUS and/or Kerry with the Saudis . . . brush Jan 2015 #17
No I don't think there was any communication. former9thward Jan 2015 #47
Okay, everyone has their own opinion brush Jan 2015 #50
Bullshit. Putin himself admitted sanctions had an effect. SunSeeker Jan 2015 #20
Dictators love to blame outsiders for economic troubles. former9thward Jan 2015 #34
And right wingers love to claim nothing Obama does works. SunSeeker Jan 2015 #36
And for you to attribute everything that happens in Russia to former9thward Jan 2015 #40
Bullshit again. I didn't attribute "everything" to sanctions nor Obama. SunSeeker Jan 2015 #42
The sanctions were for Crimea. former9thward Jan 2015 #43
I see you refuse to defend your lie and just want to change the subject. SunSeeker Jan 2015 #44
When is he leaving? former9thward Jan 2015 #46
You have repeatedly lied in this thread. Stop wasting my time. nt SunSeeker Jan 2015 #48
A childish reply Shivering Jemmy Jan 2015 #54
And yours is so insightful. former9thward Jan 2015 #55
Jesus H. Christ, find a new shtick tabasco Jan 2015 #45
The sanctions Boreal Jan 2015 #66
I think I agree with most of your post former9thward Jan 2015 #67
There's been an oil glut for many years Boreal Jan 2015 #68
Fuck that Chekist motherfucker Putin... MicaelS Jan 2015 #7
Hey what happened to the Putinestas here?... Historic NY Jan 2015 #8
maybe they got laid off nt arely staircase Jan 2015 #9
Their contract was contingent on the effectiveness of the job they were doing NBachers Jan 2015 #11
+1 Tarheel_Dem Jan 2015 #62
Checking for RT's spin on this. Cha Jan 2015 #10
My concern far war with nukes makes me a Putinista Cayenne Jan 2015 #24
TYT/Buzzfeed: "Russia's Online Troll Army Is Huge, Hilarious & Already Everywhere " Tarheel_Dem Jan 2015 #61
I'm sure Putin is suffering greatly while the people of Russia are unharmed Scootaloo Jan 2015 #13
Yes, destabilizing Russia is CERTAIN Bonobo Jan 2015 #14
Bankrupting militarily powerful European states has only brought good things, through history Scootaloo Jan 2015 #15
Because up until this point, Russia's been hunky-dorey. NuclearDem Jan 2015 #23
notice how we have gone from 'sanction can't hurt great mother russia' to 'sanctions will cause ww3' arely staircase Jan 2015 #70
Last laugh? At the destruction of an economy and the suffering of its people? JayhawkSD Jan 2015 #16
what took y'all so long? arely staircase Jan 2015 #18
Maybe we can make Putin pinkie promise to behave NuclearDem Jan 2015 #22
And the USA AgingAmerican Jan 2015 #25
No argument from me. NuclearDem Jan 2015 #32
+ a lot nationalize the fed Jan 2015 #27
Where are you gonna move to? Cali_Democrat Jan 2015 #52
You moving somewhere with no people? zappaman Jan 2015 #58
Make sure there's a Green Party wherever you move to. NuclearDem Jan 2015 #65
+infinity. Nt newfie11 Jan 2015 #28
Interesting how some start blaming Obama for doing the wrong thing LiberalFighter Jan 2015 #19
K & R SunSeeker Jan 2015 #21
"They rely on oil. We rely on oil and iPads and movies and you name it." nationalize the fed Jan 2015 #26
Exactly! rusty fender Jan 2015 #30
That is a great counterpoint, we don't rely on derivatives as much as Wall Street does. Rex Jan 2015 #57
I think inside Russia, those who miss their Perdue chickens and Pringles, are thinking Pootie's an MADem Jan 2015 #29
Will falling gas prices be bad for the climate? maced666 Jan 2015 #31
When we aren't using dead dinosaurs the likes of Putin dont matter arely staircase Jan 2015 #33
I think that's a lot of what the lower oil prices are about Fumesucker Jan 2015 #37
DU has new new found love for Hummers? Cali_Democrat Jan 2015 #53
Oversupply causes falling price. cheapdate Jan 2015 #56
Well played. Jamaal510 Jan 2015 #38
Grown ups playing chess vs arely staircase Jan 2015 #39
Exactly. If Bush was in charge, Putin would have kept marching to Kiev. SunSeeker Jan 2015 #49
I doubt Obama is laughing over this KentuckyWoman Jan 2015 #41
Hard to feel sorry for any country crying wolf right now. Rex Jan 2015 #51
I can't stand putin gwheezie Jan 2015 #59
Where do you get $9 a barrel? Oil is much higher than that. Art_from_Ark Jan 2015 #63
hyperbole arely staircase Jan 2015 #69
:/ Go Vols Jan 2015 #64
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