General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Putin looking pretty puny at 9 dollars a barrel. Obama gets last laugh. [View all]Igel
(36,561 posts)The sanctions had little effect. They had some, to be sure, but they were already showing signs of cracking. Still are.
The reasons the sanctions *will* have a larger effect are because the price of oil has declined. It means that when Russia turns to the West for help, he'll be blocked. That time is near, but not quite yet. Countries first exhaust their internal means. However, blocking him when he turns to the West might be "doing something stupid" because I suspect China will find it handy to buy a lien on the property adjacent to theirs, right over the backyard fence. Let's here it for a stronger, more influential China--esp. one whose influence over Russia places it in a position of having influence next to Europe.
For all the anti-fracking talk, increased fossil fuel production in North America is a large part of the reason for the price decline. Oops. "I oppose what will make the sanctions work better." The push for renewables helps that, but OPEC is really out not to punish Russia (although given Russia's support for Syria and Iran, let's not minimize that more than appropriate) so much as to retain market share in the long term by diminishing N. American production. They're counting on the lack of production and the lack of need for production to help pro-regulation types to re-ban a lot of drilling and to cap fracking and domestic production here and in Canada. Then to uncap them would be a political fight, during which oil prices can fund the Saudis and other petrostates.
Then there's the rest of the reason for the oil price decline: The rest of the world's economy is pretty sucky. Not horrible. Just close to flatlining. "I support why the sanctions work. Because most of the world's economy is torpid." Oops, again. It again relies on the absence of good things happening to a lot of other people.
If the economies of the world's countries were doing as we'd like, if we had our way with fracking, the sanctions would be weak, indeed. Obama lucked out by not getting what he wanted on two fronts, at least not yet, so the sanctions *will* eventually have a big role to play.
As with Syria, sometimes Obama is lucky, claims that it's innate cleverness and smarts, and some people don't see the difference because they already think Obama is clever and smart so saying he's "lucky" is just taking away what's already his awesomely deserved due and glory as a member of whatever group the "some people" involved belong to. It's what every group of adherents does with their guy in office--all good things are his personal responsibility and shows the leader's inherent wisdom; all bad things are the enemies' responsibility and shows their inherent evil.
Edit history
Recommendations
0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):