The 2014 US Elections Manipulated? [View all]

[Stevepol]

Last edited Tue Apr 21, 2015, 05:50 PM - Edit history (1)

Kathy Dopp has completed a statistical analysis of the 2014 mid-term elections and these are some of her findings:

"The probability that disparities between predicted and reported 2014 election gubernatorial and senatorial vote margins were caused by random sampling error is virtually zero. Larger than average magnitude disparities are exhibited primarily in states conducting no or low-quality post-election audits. An analysis of Maryland's election data by ballot type statistically confirms vote miscount as an explanation for its unexpected outcome."

The states that showed a disparity between the predicted results and the actual results for both gubernatorial and senatorial contests which were sufficient to alter election outcomes were: MD, IL, FL, & KS. These four states all used "inauditable voting systems or failed to conduct post-election audits." In NV, TN, NY, OH, and SD, the post-election disparities were "large but smaller than winning margins."

Living in KS, I can attest to the fact that many people here were very surprised at the final voting results.

Dopp's study (a pdf) can perhaps be accessed through the following, although I'm not quite sure how this is done:

SSRN-id2596336.pdf (There is also a longer version at: http://sssrn.com/abstract=2524093)

Earlier I posted Kathy's email and a responder suggested I might want to delete her email address because it could lead to spam sent her way. I have deleted it, and I hope she didn't receive any unwanted attention from the well-funded spammers who oppose free and fair elections, meaning "VERIFIABLE" and preferably always "audited" elections, when opti-scans are used and there's paper to use to cross check.

I speak for myself when I say I hope people do not give up on the dream of having verifiable elections once again in the US, but I suspect that Kathy agrees with me as do many at the DU.