General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Re: the recent spate of "will you vote if_____?" - aka "loyalty" threads. [View all]progree
(10,901 posts)#32 is hardly waving my hands. And #14 dealt with myriad other factors.
You've added some more, I guess.
But all that doesn't eliminate the fact that even with all that, Gore would have won if not for Nader drawing thousands more votes away from Gore than from Bush in Florida, according to exit polls asking Nader voters who they would have voted for (or not voted at all) if Nader had not been on the ballot (see #32).
PERHAPS ditto New Hampshire as I think you are trying to point out --
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2000
In New Hampshire, Nader got 22,000 votes. Bush's margin over Gore was 7,211
It's not clear to me that Nader swung New Hampshire, considering that some Nader voters would have voted for Bush, and some would have stayed home (or otherwise not voted for anyone in the presidential race) if Nader had not been on the ballot. I would have to see some New Hampshire exit poll information.
But if the Nader votes transferred to Gore / Bush / no-vote in the same ratio as in Florida (only 26% of the Florida Nader vote would have added to Gore's margin over Bush in the more optimistic-for-Gore case),
it would not have been enough to swing the outcome in New Hampshire. (26% * 22,000 = 5,720 -- not enough to overcome Bush's 7,211 margin over Gore).
That there is another state that Nader might have swung from Gore to Bush -- with enough electoral votes to change the final outcome -- only amplifies my argument:
Voting for spoilers has consequences.
Its no wonder the Republicans have supported so many Green Party candidates.
[font color = blue]>>You know who might have a good idea about how Gore lost? Al Gore. You know what he says? He ran a shitty campaign. You know what he doesn't say? "Fucking Nader!!"<<[/font]
I don't keep track of everything he says and doesn't say, so I'll have to take your word on that. He's probably too smart a politician to say "Fucking Nader!!" publicly. But I betcha he's thinking that.