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Response to Ichingcarpenter (Original post)

Sat Aug 8, 2015, 11:45 AM

80. Excellent charts in the Choquette and Johnson paper, that kicked off Clarkson's study.

(link included in the Americablog link).

The shift of votes to benefit repugs at precincts with over 350 voters, reminded me of Michael Collins' study of l'il bush's '04 'win' coming from (allegedly, according to the NEP's strained reconciliation attempt) '4 million new white big city voters', as described in Prof. Mark C. Miller's book Loser Take All, pp 97-115.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0807/S00133.htm

excerpt:

"Miller reveals a more sophisticated election theft in 2004. I wrote the chapter, "Election 2004: The Urban Legend" (by Michael Collins, see disclosure*) based on research by Internet poster " anaxarchos " who discovered some remarkable anomalies in the final exit poll for 2004: Bush won reelection in the nation's "big cities" (500,000 > pop.).

The national exit poll is sponsored by the Media Consortium consisting of the Associated Press ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, and CNN. It provides the acknowledged source of national data on who voted, where, and why. There was great controversy generated by the unintentional release of a late Election Day exit poll showing Kerry winning by 3%. The official version, released the day after the election had Bush winning by 3%.

We examined the official exit poll and discovered data that casts serious doubt on the claimed vote totals. According to the official version of the exit poll:
-- 2004 was not a red versus blue election, as reported. The rural sector in 2000 was 23% of the total vote but in 2004, it was just 16%. Bush total votes were down by two million in 2004 compared to 2000 in that segment. Bush lost significant ground in red states in 2004 and started the election in the hole.
-- Bush made spectacular gains in "big cities" (pop. 500,000 or greater) going from 26% to 39% of the total votes in that segment. According to the official exit poll, he picked up these gains largely with the help of four million white big city voters, ghosts so to speak, who rose from their graves and other hiding places to hand the election to Bush.
-- According to the official exit poll, the Bush big city magic took place amidst a 66% increase in big city voter turnout compared to a more modest 16% national turnout increase using reported vote totals.

There was no 66% increase in big city turnout. Actual big city vote totals, available election eve or shortly thereafter, show big city turnout slightly below the national average. The exit poll's 66% turnout increase and the four million white ghosts were the only way to make the poll agree with the election results, neither of which was accurate.
According to the official exits, Bush became the first president to be re-elected while both losing significant ground in his base and, at the same time, making it up in hostile territory, the nation's big cities. The same people who gave us this mess did the exit polling for the 2008 primaries and will conduct the 2008 national exit poll in November. "


It can't be conclusively stated that the 'over 350 voter precinct' flip is the same as the 'urban legend' red shift, because I don't have the big city precinct'size' numbers. But that central tabulator flip looks like a reasonable mechanism to explain the 4 million new big-city white 'ghost' bush supporters, who 'officially' gave him the victory, when he was hated in all the Dem big cities, and had done absolutely nothing in terms of 'pro-big city' policy, or big-city voter outreach.

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Ichingcarpenter Aug 2015 OP
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LineNew Reply Excellent charts in the Choquette and Johnson paper, that kicked off Clarkson's study.
Mc Mike Aug 2015 #80
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