General Discussion

quaker bill

(8,239 posts)

225. my model for prediction is very simple

Sun Dec 6, 2015, 06:07 AM

Dec 2015

It is not at all dissimilar to what we have seen play out with same gender marriages. The law changes after the culture has changed.

I do not pretend to know how many mass shootings will be required to reach the critical mass that results in cultural change. It seems reasonable to predict that the number will be large. It also seems reasonable to predict that as long as guns are plentiful and easily available, the number of mass shootings will grow.

I am a regulator and like regulations generally, but in this case regulation seems pointless. No one has proposed a constitutional regulation that would have limited the SB shooter's access to a plentiful supply of legal firepower. Sure, some would change the shape and color of the guns, but no serious proposal would have kept them from the ability to lay waste to the place with some form of firearm. Regulation regardless of how well written will not solve the essential problem.

The problem ends with the end of gun culture. Gun culture ends when it is not "freedom" to own a gun, and owning a gun is not "cool" or something a person is "proud" of. This sort of social movement is entirely possible (see same gender marriage as an example), but will take time and stimulus to drive it. I simply propose that the stimulus to drive it is mass shootings and that there is a sufficient supply of disturbed "proud" gun owners to supply the needed stimulus for social change on a regular and repeated basis into the foreseeable future.

In short, the very excesses of gun culture itself are the forces that will end it. The legal and safe gun owners possess no mechanism to prevent this, and like today, will not even try.

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The gigantic logic failure of gun confiscating [View all] LittleBlue Dec 2015 OP

I thought the gun enthusiasts all claim they are law abiding citizens? etherealtruth Dec 2015 #1

I'm not talking about what gun fanatics claim LittleBlue Dec 2015 #3

I am coming from the point of the contradiction coming from them etherealtruth Dec 2015 #4

Start with ammo Politicalboi Dec 2015 #66

Laws against ammo have been ruled unconstintutional. Snobblevitch Dec 2015 #67

I'm sure the NRA had something to do with that. bkkyosemite Dec 2015 #176

No, the Bill of Rights had something to do with that... pipoman Dec 2015 #178

The case law that I am thinking of came Snobblevitch Dec 2015 #180

The gigantic logic failure here... gcomeau Dec 2015 #2

Have you missed the last year? LittleBlue Dec 2015 #5

Nope. gcomeau Dec 2015 #6

...heh-heh...I think littleblue is addressing a Real issue about controller dialog... Eleanors38 Dec 2015 #263

Complete confiscation will likely require a couple of decades; but it is well worth it. LonePirate Dec 2015 #7

Confiscation will never happen TeddyR Dec 2015 #8

There is a poll today here on DU where the partial and full confiscation numbers are about 60%. LonePirate Dec 2015 #11

I would never underestimate how much the rest of DU wants guns gone. cherokeeprogressive Dec 2015 #78

I certainly agree that DU does not represent the nation as a whole. DU is merely a trendsetter. LonePirate Dec 2015 #88

Can you name one for me? cherokeeprogressive Dec 2015 #92

Here are a couple off the top of my head. LonePirate Dec 2015 #100

You do realize that DU is a TERRIBLE predictor of national trends, right? Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #196

Yes it will happen Abouttime Dec 2015 #14

So first TeddyR Dec 2015 #57

I don't know which Democratic president you think will stick his/her neck out that far tularetom Dec 2015 #98

If you did those things, people would indeed line up. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #201

Mmm... reporting on the neighbors for a victimless offense against the state.. TipTok Dec 2015 #10

So you support citizens possessing illegal items that endanger the lives of their neighbors? LonePirate Dec 2015 #13

How exactly are they endangering the lives of their neighbors? TipTok Dec 2015 #19

How does the neighbor know if it is safely locked away? What if the neighbor's kids play there? LonePirate Dec 2015 #23

The risk is actually pretty reasonable... TipTok Dec 2015 #27

The cure - saving just 1 life - makes it far more important than the epidemic of gun violence. LonePirate Dec 2015 #29

Ahh.. Just one life... TipTok Dec 2015 #40

"The cure - saving just 1 life - makes it far more important than...." EX500rider Dec 2015 #202

I am all for that! FrodosPet Dec 2015 #234

Your solution is a lot worse, GGJohn Dec 2015 #233

Confiscation is a "solution" that would kill exponentially more than it saves. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #240

Banning abortion lancer78 Dec 2015 #264

Way to grossly understate the number of deaths from guns mythology Dec 2015 #48

They provide no good to society... TipTok Dec 2015 #50

The gundamentalists only care about guns. Nothing else matters - not even their fellow mankind. LonePirate Dec 2015 #51

You are actually wrong TeddyR Dec 2015 #62

Fact failure. In 2013 in the U.S., 33,636 deaths from firearms. 10.6 deaths per 100,000. valerief Dec 2015 #49

I was talking about mass shootings since that is what seems to be driving this particular tizzy... TipTok Dec 2015 #52

But people get killed individually by guns, too. Even moreso than in valerief Dec 2015 #53

Which control measures would that be...? TipTok Dec 2015 #65

You're guilty of adverbitis. valerief Dec 2015 #198

You can't claim all of the suicide deaths exboyfil Dec 2015 #73

And could be you. valerief Dec 2015 #199

Some measures would. But all the focus on "assault weapons" and large magazines mostly wouldn't. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #197

Of which 2/3rd's was suicides. GGJohn Dec 2015 #115

So you support Soviet style block wardens? eom. GGJohn Dec 2015 #114

Sounds more like the Stasi's "Inoffizieller Mitarbeiter" to me: friendly_iconoclast Dec 2015 #182

A 75 year old gun nut.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #22

My money is on the LEOs when it comes to a showdown with 75 yo George the Gun Nut LonePirate Dec 2015 #25

You are pretending again.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #28

If the local PD won't do it, call in the military. MillennialDem Dec 2015 #31

So....Same thing applies their.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #32

Give me a tank and I'll do it. Come out gramps or you get a 105 mm high explosive round MillennialDem Dec 2015 #35

Come on out! TipTok Dec 2015 #41

It sounds like you're the homicidal maniac here. appal_jack Dec 2015 #46

Sorta of shocking how violent gun control advocates truly are.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #77

Far less insane than the gun nuts. Just trying to make the country a better place - while MillennialDem Dec 2015 #104

Why? We are not the police, I have not stood by.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #105

Not outside the mainstream for my age. And I've never wrecked my car or hit anyone drag racing, why MillennialDem Dec 2015 #111

Yet here you are advocating the same exact thing. GGJohn Dec 2015 #119

So this is your fantasy then? cherokeeprogressive Dec 2015 #84

So you're for killing fellow Americans who are refusing to obey GGJohn Dec 2015 #118

You and your attitude is far more dangerous than 75 year old George, GGJohn Dec 2015 #235

Wow... darkangel218 Dec 2015 #251

Law enforcement will enforce the laws or lose their jobs Abouttime Dec 2015 #42

Or at very least will keep them in their homes and won't dare take them outside. That alone is MillennialDem Dec 2015 #43

See post #117. GGJohn Dec 2015 #121

I think you're utterly mistaken. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #186

Have you paid attention to what LE actually thinks? Lee-Lee Dec 2015 #192

Well for one thing, that's a whole 'nother constitutional issue. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #55

The military as an institution TeddyR Dec 2015 #70

I'm not sure what rural community you live in but the urban LEOs want guns gone. LonePirate Dec 2015 #33

So, your going to send Richmond cops, virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #38

Faced with the consequences Abouttime Dec 2015 #45

Let me answer that ... virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #47

Couldn't have said it better. Waldorf Dec 2015 #113

If you truly believe this nonsense, GGJohn Dec 2015 #123

"Crime would plummet..." EX500rider Dec 2015 #203

When criminals are disarmed? GGJohn Dec 2015 #237

Archery would be ok though, right? FrodosPet Dec 2015 #239

I live in a pretty big city... Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #58

Wrong. GGJohn Dec 2015 #122

As someone who was a rural deputy you make me laugh Lee-Lee Dec 2015 #193

What makes you think LE will enforce such a ban and confiscation? GGJohn Dec 2015 #117

Why? Abouttime Dec 2015 #158

Why? GGJohn Dec 2015 #159

The so called 'rights' in the second amendment are tearing our country apart Abouttime Dec 2015 #162

You can call it a so called right all you want, GGJohn Dec 2015 #163

Twenty years ago Abouttime Dec 2015 #166

... GGJohn Dec 2015 #168

Cute Abouttime Dec 2015 #181

"Another gun nut's spouse or neighbor may anonymously report them for confiscation. Social and peer Brickbat Dec 2015 #128

Oh, just wait til you get further down the thread. Sissyk Dec 2015 #141

That's part of the appeal to the control crowd... TipTok Dec 2015 #9

Salivating? I think it's more surprise - to be told repeatedly jmg257 Dec 2015 #18

People aren't the sheep you describe them to be... TipTok Dec 2015 #20

I feel absolutely no need to obey laws against the US Bill of Rights.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #30

Who decides what is constitutional in your world? upaloopa Dec 2015 #37

Not you. EOM virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #39

Once we repeal the 2A, it's no longer part of the Bill of Rights LonePirate Dec 2015 #54

So.... virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #56

You sound exactly like the type of person who shouldn't possess a gun. LonePirate Dec 2015 #59

I'm not the one fixated on my firearms.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #61

When we finally enact bans and confiscations, you can turn them over or go to jail. Your choice. LonePirate Dec 2015 #63

I will do neither.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #69

How surprising! A gunner who supports violence. Nothing matters except guns, huh? LonePirate Dec 2015 #72

You are the ones with the gleam in your eye... TipTok Dec 2015 #103

Nope, I do not, where do you get that from? virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #109

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #195

Is this why you feel you are above treestar Dec 2015 #204

It simple.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #210

Repealing the Second Amendment TeddyR Dec 2015 #68

Repeal is a good 30-50 years away, barring a major shift. But you underestimate young Americans. LonePirate Dec 2015 #81

I was born in 69 TeddyR Dec 2015 #99

My grand sons enjoy shooting and hunting. Hangingon Dec 2015 #208

Don't forget Arizona, my state. GGJohn Dec 2015 #125

"Once we repeal the 2A, it's no longer part of the Bill of Rights" GGJohn Dec 2015 #124

That is wrong lancer78 Dec 2015 #265

Good luck getting state laws past an explicit Constitutional ban on them. LonePirate Dec 2015 #266

you suggested lancer78 Dec 2015 #267

Yep the Gun-Grabbing Brown Shirts Elmergantry Dec 2015 #101

Your feewings sound hurt, or is it your gun's feewings that are hurt? maxsolomon Dec 2015 #12

I own one gun and rarely ever fire it LittleBlue Dec 2015 #15

What a magnificent counter-argument, I can feel myself getting smarter reading every word. sibelian Dec 2015 #80

what is the proper way to deal with gish galloping hypotheticals maxsolomon Dec 2015 #82

Gallop along, my dear! sibelian Dec 2015 #91

Well dang, that's it gratuitous Dec 2015 #16

So it's your position Crunchy Frog Dec 2015 #17

It isn't my position at all LittleBlue Dec 2015 #21

Gun Control Yes. Confiscation No. Dirty Socialist Dec 2015 #24

BAN manufacture, sales and importation reddread Dec 2015 #190

We need at least a half million more police officers for this job then FrodosPet Dec 2015 #241

it cant be done. it cannot be done. but you can not condone, and laws set the tone reddread Dec 2015 #243

Well, that would quickly sort out the real law abiding citizens from the criminals, wouldn't it? nt Erich Bloodaxe BSN Dec 2015 #26

Just like marijuana legalization.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #34

How much bigger do you want the prison population in the US to get? sibelian Dec 2015 #86

Not only that, but people who want guns will still get them. MindPilot Dec 2015 #36

"you think they won't violently resist giving up their arms?" ...I absolutely expect it 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #44

You think the people will have sympathy for cops... virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #60

Absolutely. 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #74

Not up to me.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #75

Molon Labe Elmergantry Dec 2015 #102

When all else fails, threaten violence and war 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #108

Well I'm not the one Elmergantry Dec 2015 #110

Well, in that instance the Davidians were barricaded and firing on law enforcement 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #112

Again spoken like a totalitarian. Elmergantry Dec 2015 #161

"And none of this prevents you from immigrating to a country with lax gun laws" EX500rider Dec 2015 #206

Considering most of Mexico's guns come from the US 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #207

So strict guns laws do squat to keep out guns? EX500rider Dec 2015 #209

Point being they get most of their guns from us... 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #215

And is the US the only gun producer in the world? EX500rider Dec 2015 #217

"Hey Jamaica has crimes so gimmie muh gerns!" 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #218

It's a fairly obvious point that outlawing guns in those countries did nothing.. EX500rider Dec 2015 #219

It's not the firearm owners threatening violence, GGJohn Dec 2015 #126

Ban the sale & distribution of bullets and the means to make bullets. The_Casual_Observer Dec 2015 #64

Can't do that, that technology is almost 150 years old, virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #76

So you are going to ban lead, fire and brass? MindPilot Dec 2015 #79

Yeah that's right the whole fucking thing! The_Casual_Observer Dec 2015 #87

LOL that statement alone shows just how poorly you understand....... virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #214

Oh boy, here we go again. Red States vs. Blue States. I grew up in the country where a .22 was a libdem4life Dec 2015 #71

When women got the right to vote, kiva Dec 2015 #83

If the LEO's poked them all full of holes, it would be win-win. ileus Dec 2015 #85

Right, so KILLING LOTS OF OTHERWISE INNOCENT PEOPLE sibelian Dec 2015 #94

They're not innocent...they're the enemy if they're breaking the law. ileus Dec 2015 #95

Oooookidokey then, you draw up laws to bring about excuses to kill your enemy. sibelian Dec 2015 #96

To be perfectly honest, I think they would all give their guns up without a fight. Oneironaut Dec 2015 #89

After Sandy Hook Connecticut instituted some pretty strick new gun laws. Google what the Waldorf Dec 2015 #116

We will never have gun confiscation in the US. At least not in our lifetime. hollowdweller Dec 2015 #90

Some scumbags will resist. So what? HuckleB Dec 2015 #93

Of which 2/3rd's are suicides. GGJohn Dec 2015 #129

Oh, goodie. More actual keyboard commando nonsense. HuckleB Dec 2015 #137

I could care less if you're the Pope, GGJohn Dec 2015 #138

I could care less what you think. Period. HuckleB Dec 2015 #144

Just as I thought, GGJohn Dec 2015 #147

Derp. HuckleB Dec 2015 #149

I actually put myself in harms way for over 40+ years before I retired. GGJohn Dec 2015 #150

I doubt that very, very much. HuckleB Dec 2015 #152

And I very seriously doubt that you've EVER put yourself in danger in your life. GGJohn Dec 2015 #153

Blah. Blah. Blah. HuckleB Dec 2015 #154

Your refusal to answer the question, then accuse me of lying, then running away GGJohn Dec 2015 #155

Quite a piece or work, that one. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #200

Sure I will go treestar Dec 2015 #205

Not by me, GGJohn Dec 2015 #211

Do you support putting the earliest efforts at confiscation in African American communities? FrodosPet Dec 2015 #242

We are in trouble because millions sit around in paranoia, waiting for a self-fufilling prophecy Rex Dec 2015 #97

NOBODY is suggesting gun confiscation librechik Dec 2015 #106

That is a factuly incorrect statement on it's face.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #157

Thanks for showing me your bad spelling! Don't know any liberals librechik Dec 2015 #165

how about controlling powder? ormarkers in it? if fertilizer has that, and oc drugs are regulated... JanMichael Dec 2015 #107

Definition of gun control... Kang Colby Dec 2015 #120

While there certainly are millions of gun owners ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #127

If cops started kicking down the doors of lawful Americans looking for firearms, (won't ever happen) GGJohn Dec 2015 #130

So why are we talking about what won't happen ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #131

I have no idea why, GGJohn Dec 2015 #133

Very interesting that you chose to say "lawful Americans" not "lawful firearms" 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #132

If you truly believe that Americans won't resist this, GGJohn Dec 2015 #134

The only thing you have left is threatening people with violence over and over and over again 951-Riverside Dec 2015 #135

I myself have never visited violence on another human since I retired from the Army, GGJohn Dec 2015 #136

So threatening more violence? Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #140

I'm threatening violence? GGJohn Dec 2015 #142

Lol! So predictable. So dishonest. Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #143

I'll thank you to keep your words out of my mouth. GGJohn Dec 2015 #145

See #143 Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #146

See #145 GGJohn Dec 2015 #148

Not even capable of an original response. See #143 Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #151

Again, see post #145. eom. GGJohn Dec 2015 #156

See #143 Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #160

"In the last 43 years, more Americans have been shot by another American... EX500rider Dec 2015 #216

Well I'll be...Its almost like they included suicides, isn't it. beevul Dec 2015 #221

Unlikely hmm? Here you go. Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #230

It's says "Americans shot by another American" EX500rider Dec 2015 #231

Lol. still trying to defend your side. Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #232

Suicides are not "American's shooting other American's" per the OP EX500rider Dec 2015 #244

Lol..rationalize it however you like Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #245

It's not "rationalization" to point out the figures are wrong. Just facts. EX500rider Dec 2015 #246

I am citing facts, your simply spinning them Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #248

Except it's not a fact. EX500rider Dec 2015 #249

You functionally illiterate? Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #250

Are you mathematically challenged? lol EX500rider Dec 2015 #252

See #250 Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #256

I'll take that as a yes...lol EX500rider Dec 2015 #257

Keep spinning Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #258

When someone (you in this case) says "Americans who killed OTHER Americans"... EX500rider Dec 2015 #259

Lol! So predictable. So dishonest. Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #260

Just don't want to own what you wrote & I'm the dishonest one....lol EX500rider Dec 2015 #261

I stand by what I wrote. Keep spinning Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #262

So if you say "I drive other American's cars" you mean you drive your own car? EX500rider Dec 2015 #269

Keep trying Katashi_itto Dec 2015 #270

How to Create a Gun-Free America in 5 Easy Steps branford Dec 2015 #139

Confiscate the guns when they're not at home. ZX86 Dec 2015 #164

HA laundry_queen Dec 2015 #254

You poor little Red Dawn dreamer. Photographer Dec 2015 #167

What in the world leads you to believe that the military will fire on Americans? GGJohn Dec 2015 #169

They've done it before... On Vets. They follow orders. Photographer Dec 2015 #170

The military fired on American vets? GGJohn Dec 2015 #171

MacArthur. Google Bonus Army Photographer Dec 2015 #172

Wow!!! GGJohn Dec 2015 #173

Why not? Cops do it all the time. Hey, your precious 2nd is a lot older than 60 years. Photographer Dec 2015 #174

Again, what makes you think that cops are going to enforce a ban and confiscation? GGJohn Dec 2015 #175

If it's the law, they will enforce it. If you think they won't you live in a dream world Photographer Dec 2015 #177

You're the one living in a dream world. GGJohn Dec 2015 #179

I very much suspect you're wrong about that. Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #187

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2015 #194

when the time comes quaker bill Dec 2015 #183

Uh huh. GGJohn Dec 2015 #185

my model for prediction is very simple quaker bill Dec 2015 #225

"The law changes after the culture has changed." Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #238

I agree that it will be the unforeseen quaker bill Dec 2015 #247

I have been in both the military and law enforcement- neither body would do the confiscation Lee-Lee Dec 2015 #184

A severe ammo shortage would be a starting place. lonestarnot Dec 2015 #188

Not really for many reasons Lee-Lee Dec 2015 #191

Cops need another economic asset instead of "the marijuana." They can looks for bullets and lonestarnot Dec 2015 #222

WHO the FUCK is arguing for gun confiscation like that? Fast Walker 52 Dec 2015 #189

Evidently you have not been on here for a few days.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #213

fair enough, thanks Fast Walker 52 Dec 2015 #223

I have a feeling the NRA and other groups.. virginia mountainman Dec 2015 #224

Restrict new production, restrict ammo, stop public toting, restrict shooting ranges, etc. Let them Hoyt Dec 2015 #212

Hi RW trolls! Matrosov Dec 2015 #220

Luckily EdwardBernays Dec 2015 #226

Of course they would resist and if it takes violence to confiscate their guns so be it. bowens43 Dec 2015 #227

Actually, I think the first step would be to ban all imports and exports. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Dec 2015 #228

So who's going to perform that violence in order to confiscate? Lizzie Poppet Dec 2015 #236

I have found everyone is all talk DashOneBravo Dec 2015 #253

Would trigger a civil war. Elmergantry Dec 2015 #229

How did the Australians do it? (eom) Shankapotomus Dec 2015 #255

What if we hired private armies to carry out the confiscation and compliance. ileus Dec 2015 #268