the demographics, they are changing.. [View all]
It has been known for a while that the changing demographics favor the democrats. The country is becoming more and more diversified and the white anglo saxons (I am one of them ) will no longer be the majority in a couple decades or less.
Given that the latino population is increasing fast and that they tend to vote democrat, its looking better and better for us democrats.
At 538, they have this interesting interactive tool they call the "swing-o-matic". Fun to play with :
here
How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each partys candidate by the five demographic groups. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national popular vote taking into account how much of the states electorate the group accounts for.
If their assumptions about turnout for this year as well as current voting trends hold, the nominee will easily carry the country.