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Response to Bucky (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 07:24 PM

14. Nate Silver is indeed the most pessimistic of the group

I ranked these by taking the midpoint of their tossup range, and got this ordering:

FiveThirtyEight 297.5
Cook Political 301
ABC 306
PredictWise 308
Sabato's Crystal Ball 308.5
Governing 311.5
CNN 315.5
NBC 316
Associated Press 321.5
Princeton 323
NPR 323.5
Fox 325.5
The Fix 326
NYT Upshot 334.5
Rothenberg&Gonzales 335

Nate Silver is about 19 EV off the average, and the most Trumpward of the bunch. Given that the turnout stories indicate a surge of Dem votes way beyond his prediction, I expect that this election will be Silver's comeuppance as the big star among statistical election predictors.

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Bucky Nov 2016 OP
Sherman A1 Nov 2016 #1
Helen Borg Nov 2016 #2
Bucky Nov 2016 #3
Thor_MN Nov 2016 #9
left-of-center2012 Nov 2016 #16
Fahrenthold451 Nov 2016 #26
Bucky Nov 2016 #4
Bernardo de La Paz Nov 2016 #5
still_one Nov 2016 #7
barbtries Nov 2016 #10
bucolic_frolic Nov 2016 #12
barbtries Nov 2016 #15
mountain grammy Nov 2016 #20
barbtries Nov 2016 #25
mountain grammy Nov 2016 #29
alfredo Nov 2016 #17
Bernardo de La Paz Nov 2016 #11
Mendocino Nov 2016 #24
leftynyc Nov 2016 #28
Bernardo de La Paz Nov 2016 #30
leftynyc Nov 2016 #31
Lithos Nov 2016 #13
LineReply Nate Silver is indeed the most pessimistic of the group
paulkienitz Nov 2016 #14
FSogol Nov 2016 #19
mountain grammy Nov 2016 #21
ginnyinWI Nov 2016 #22
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