I think the notion that the electorate is some neat left/moderate/right bell curve is ludicrous. I don't claim to understand it all, but I took a shot at defining a few distinct groups I see "out there." I make no assertions about the size of these groups (except 4).

1. Staunch Democrats:
People who will stand strong with Dems no matter what the Dems do.

2. Not Republicans:
People who get out to vote for Dems because Republicans are so much worse. They are at risk for falling into 3. These may not be as strongly "behind" Dems as group 1, but neither are they "moderates" in the sense that they occupy some left leaning/middle ground.

3. Opt Outs:
People who have opted out because they have given up on either party ever doing anything that actually makes a difference.

4. Disenfranchised:
a) People denied the right to vote for life by their status as felons -- about 4 million nationwide (not a trivial number). For example, about 30% of the African American male population of Alabama and Mississippi fall into this category..
b) People denied the right to vote by the suppression tactics we are seeing enacted by Republican controlled legislatures. One of the most effective means -- and one that gets FAR too little attention -- is under-allocation of resources in "certain areas." In areas that had long lines as a consequence of insufficient resources I have no doubt that at least 1 in 10 turned around and went home, or back to work, when they saw the lines.

5. Republican "Swing"
People attracted to Republicans primarily because they perceive them as the "strong ones." They go with "Strong and Wrong" Republicans over "Weak and Right" Dems. Many of these would swing to Dems if Dems demonstrated strength and gave them a real choice between Strong and Wrong, and Strong and Right.

Group 5 is not "moderate" in the sense that they subscribe to some ideology in the "middle. It is the strength they see in the right-wingnuts that they find most attractive.

6. Knee jerk Republicans:
People who just see themselves as "Republican" and vote that way without much thought. Most of them probably always will. People in this group weren't keen on DT. Some stuck with him, some opted out because DT is such a horror show. Aside from the problems some of these have with DT, they go with Republican candidates down ticket. Some would actually start thinking twice if Dems transformed themselves sufficiently to inspire people in groups 3 and 5 to get behind them.

7. Staunch Reps/Dem haters: People whose hatred of Dems is so deep, nothing a Dem could do will ever reach them. Many are far more driven by hatred of Dems feed by the Republican noise machine than the propaganda against reasonable gun control and their commitment to "banning" abortion.

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The current Democratic leadership "strategy" of preemptive surrender ignores the existence of 3 and 5. As a consequence, those groups have just grown larger and larger.

In re: 4, the failure of the leadership to make restoring the right to vote to every person who has "paid their debt to society" is appalling, as is the failure to advocate for the bold steps needed to end mass incarceration.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. The Dems are currently trapped by insidious memes and beltway group think..

They will never win a filibuster-proof majority if they don't break free of the "conventional wisdom." They won't win of a vast majority of state administrations and legislatures. If they don't change, they will not gain the power necessary to create a far more equitable nation over the coming decades.