An 18 point shift in a seat R's have won since 1978 is a damn good showing!

[FBaggins]

36. That, too, is deceptive

Incumbents REGULARLY outperform someone from the same party running for an open seat. That's why parties focus so hard on open seats.

Also - incumbents in comparatively safe seats rarely get legitimate opponents who are well-financed - and thus their margin of victory is significantly outsized.

Looking at the Clinton/Trump numbers for the same district is not an illegitimate way to evaluate this race. It's certainly closer to "generic R vs. generic D" than looking at a blowout by an incumbent against someone with no name recognition and no fundraising.

For context - read this article from November:

http://www.cbs46.com/story/33632482/who-is-the-ghost-candidate-for-us-6th-district

ATLANTA (CBS46) - Voters are questioning "who is the Democrat U.S. representative 6th district candidate, Rodney Stooksbury?" He is on the Georgia ticket up against Republican Tom Price. Yet, he is virtually unknown. Stooksbury has no candidate picture, website, Facebook, Twitter nor LinkedIn account.

CBS46 went to the address registered to Stooksbury and no answer. We spoke with neighbors who say they've never even heard of him. One voter expresses her frustration on why the candidate would even run? "You would think for a Congressional race, someone who is on the ballot would take it a little more seriously," Emily Novik tells us.

There have been no campaign signs spotted with Rodney Stooksbury's name on it. Voters question if Stooksbury even exists.