Sandoval and Heller (GOP gov and Senator from NV) holding Medicaid press conference today

[Awsi Dooger]

12. I don't think Heller would automatically lose

Nevada midterms are considerably more friendly to Republicans than presidential cycles. The so-called cow counties turn out dependably while Clark County falls off.

Dean Heller is kind of like John Ensign type who looks the part, can feign moderate, and hang around as long as he likes, minus self implosion. I think he would narrowly prevail even if he backed the bill. A nutcase like Sharron Angle nearly took away Reid's seat in 2010 during a midterm cycle.

There isn't a superstar Democratic nominee. Muddled possibilities, lots of names who would be giving up situations that are currently favorable or that they seem happy with. Many of them lost major statewide races in 2014 or earlier. If I had to pick someone if would be Ross Miller, who was considered a rising star with long term likelihood until he lost in a huge upset during the 2014 midterm debacle. The problem with Ross is that he is making money outside politics now and seems content, unlike somebody like Danny Tarkanian the Republican stiff who shows up dependably for every open race and loses again and again.

There was a poll a week or so ago with a generic Democrat leading Heller by 7%. That no doubt is the reason the GOP is concerned about doing anything to weaken Heller.