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In reply to the discussion: You guys can't keep doing this. Working class white man here. [View all]Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)It was posted here yesterday but mostly ignored:
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/
* The 2016 electorate was considerably more white than reported in the national exit poll: 73.7% compared to 71%
* The white college educated slice of the vote was overstated in exit polls, and the white working class percentage was considerably understated
* 64% of registered whites without a college degree turned out in 2016, compared to 61% in 2016. That demographic shifted sharply to Trump. Hillary's margin in the popular vote would have gone up .6% if those working class whites had turned out in 2012 numbers and not their 2016 numbers
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Naturally in a tight election any number of variables can be isolated as the tipping point. White working class voters were certainly among them. The dramatic shift right among that demographic was glaring as early as 2014. There were countless ominous online articles toward 2016. I read them and it was the reason I always expected Hillary to lose a close election in 2016. Only after the GOP nominated Trump did I start to think Hillary had a legitimate chance, and once Trump imploded I spent the final three months expecting Hillary to narrowly prevail.
Unless we get the white vote back up to 39 or 40% favoring Democrats instead of 37% or lower, it means big problems. You can't surrender that type of margin among a demographic so large and influential
I'm sure there are white liberals all over Utah who don't like the way their state's politics are portrayed. If it were merely theoretical instead of tested by numbers time and again the argument would hold some relevance.