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In reply to the discussion: U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4% [View all]kurtcagle
(1,602 posts)* Yield curve is heading negative
* Oil prices are up 25% YOY.
* DJIA hit peak in Jan, down 10%, trading range bound. Behavior looks a lot like mid 2007
* Tax "jolt" had surprisingly little apparent effect.
* Retail is in a mess, and many large retail mall bond notes come due this year.
* Number of startups are down (usually a good indicator that early stage capital is drying up.
* Finally, tariffs are already leaving a lot of farmers stranded with a good crop yield and no buyers.
Also worth noting - the low unemployment numbers have more to do with the growing number of retiring boomers (Baby Boom peaked in 1954, which means that nearly half of all boomers are retiring this year or next). Participation rate is dropping pretty dramatically.