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Response to yallerdawg (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 3, 2018, 09:53 AM

15. Different surveys (why the unemployment rate fell 0.1% when payroll jobs increased by only +157,000)

The +157,000 jobs is from the Establishment Survey.

The unemployment rate, the number of employed and unemployed, labor participation rate and civilian labor force and civilian non-institutional population and more is from the Household Survey.

The number of employed (Household Survey) went up by a fantastical 389,000 -- yes, way different than the 157,000 in the Establishment Survey. Monthly changes in the Household Survey are extremely volatile. It is common for the two surveys to be radically different in month-to-month changes, although over time they average out to be about the same (well, currently the Employed is 155,965,000 which is 4.6% higher than the 149,128,000 establishment survey number of employees)

The number of unemployed went down by 284,000 in July.

The civilian labor force = employed + unemployed. It went up by 389,000-284,000 = 105,000 in July.
The unemployment rate = unemployed / civilian labor force.

Table A has some of the key numbers in the Household Survey. Table B has some of the key numbers in the Establishment Survey.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

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This one from December talks about incredible volatility of the Household Survey numbers and compares to the somewhat larger and less volatile Establishment Survey.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1935196

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On EDIT - i almost forgot: May and June were revised up by 59,000 jobs. Counting that, the total number of payroll jobs in July was 157,000 + 59,000 = 216,000 more than reported in the jobs report of a month ago.

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mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 OP
BumRushDaShow Aug 2018 #1
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Snellius Aug 2018 #3
djacq Aug 2018 #4
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #5
heaven05 Aug 2018 #13
yallerdawg Aug 2018 #6
LineLineReply Different surveys (why the unemployment rate fell 0.1% when payroll jobs increased by only +157,000)
progree Aug 2018 #15
yallerdawg Aug 2018 #17
progree Aug 2018 #18
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #7
NewJeffCT Aug 2018 #8
Sunlei Aug 2018 #11
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DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #12
progree Aug 2018 #16
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progree Aug 2018 #20
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progree Aug 2018 #26
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mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #14
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