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Response to yallerdawg (Reply #17)

Fri Aug 3, 2018, 11:27 AM

18. Yes - same survey as the decline in the number of reentrants is the 389,000 increase in the employed

Last edited Fri Aug 3, 2018, 12:37 PM - Edit history (2)

I'm gonna stick with the BLS report (same every month, same surveys every month).


First, both the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey reports are produced by the BLS. There isn't one that is a "BLS report" and one that is not.

OK, let's discuss the Household Survey which produces the reentrants figure that you are highlighting, as well as the labor force numbers, the employed, the unemployed, the unemployment rate, and many other numbers.

The decrease in the number of reentrants to the labor force affect the number of unemployed. Reentrants are just a small part of the unemployed -- those that began a job search in the previous month after having not been in the labor force for awhile. As I said in #15, according to the Household Survey, in July compared to June:

+389,000 Employed
-284,000 Unemployed
-------------------------
+105,000 Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed.

Can you explain why you believe the "reentrants" number from the Household Survey but not the number of Employed in the same survey? (Actually they aren't in conflict -- those that started looking for work in the prior month and found jobs are counted as Employed, not as reentrants) Or do you believe the number of Employed increased by 389,000? Really?

And after the numbers were added to the May and June totals, how do you get to add them to July? Nice try!


Sigh, according to Establishment Survey figures of non-farm payroll employment.

In last month's report (for June) that came out July 6
148,912,000

In the report that came out today
149,128,000

Difference: 216,000.

That was the point I was making -- that there are 216,000 more non-farm payroll jobs being reported today then there were during last month's report on July 6. This difference is the result of the 157,000 added in July plus the upward revisions to the two prior months. I'm sorry if you think I was playing a trick -- I think I explained it clearly in #15, but, oh, well.

LATE EDIT: 1236p ET - By the way, the reason I brought up the +216,000 jobs number (including prior month revisions) was as an attempt to partially explain why the unemployment rate dropped even though the headline jobs number, +157,000, was kind of anemic -- namely that job growth in prior 2 months was under-reported by 59,000. I wasn't trying to boost Caligula's job creation numbers, just trying to come up with one other explanation for peculiar results (besides that the Household Survey is so volatile and statistically noisy that the month-to-month changes are more noise than signal).

I was also trying to explain that there are two jobs reports that came out today -- The Establishment Survey and The Household Survey, both by the BLS. And that they are separate surveys. And frequently give much different pictures of changes in employment, e.g. +157,000 vs. +389,000 as they did today. The former is considered much more reliable than the latter -- not just by me, but by the BLS and all economists that I have ever read that compare the two --

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1935196

If you want to believe the 389,000 number, that's fine

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mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 OP
BumRushDaShow Aug 2018 #1
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #2
Snellius Aug 2018 #3
djacq Aug 2018 #4
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #5
heaven05 Aug 2018 #13
yallerdawg Aug 2018 #6
progree Aug 2018 #15
yallerdawg Aug 2018 #17
LineLineLineLineReply Yes - same survey as the decline in the number of reentrants is the 389,000 increase in the employed
progree Aug 2018 #18
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #7
NewJeffCT Aug 2018 #8
Sunlei Aug 2018 #11
Bengus81 Aug 2018 #9
Sunlei Aug 2018 #10
DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #12
progree Aug 2018 #16
DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #19
progree Aug 2018 #20
DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #21
progree Aug 2018 #22
DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #25
progree Aug 2018 #26
DemocratSinceBirth Aug 2018 #27
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #14
videohead5 Aug 2018 #23
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #24
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2018 #28
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