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Bernardo de La Paz

(48,789 posts)
3. Trump not going to kick Canada out. He can't kick Canada out. He would have tried if it served him.
Sat Sep 1, 2018, 02:24 PM
Sep 2018

US runs a trade surplus with Canada (goods and services) and a slight deficit (a few percent) if you only look at goods. And he lies about the specific aspects of automobiles, dairy, metals, and "national security".

Trump can't kick Canada out just by declaring so. NAFTA is a treaty that has been ratified. It takes Congressional action to complete an abrogation of the treaty.

It is not to tRump's advantage, politically, to kick Canada out.

1) He desperately needs a deal, any deal, because he hasn't made any deal with any country. The so-called "deal" with Mexico is only an agreement on a subset of issues.

2) Abrogating NAFTA would be an enormous disruption to the US economy and not to its benefit. Large numbers of tRumpLickers would lose jobs.

3) Other countries would be even more reluctant to trade with the US and would accelerate their movement to trade around the US by trading with each other.

4) If it was an advantage to the US to stop trading with Canada, he would have moved to do so already. Even if it was an advantage to him politically and a detriment to the US, he would have moved already. It is not even an advantage to him politically.

5) Massive punitive tariffs will be reciprocated and have drastic effects on the US economy. But they could be reversed quickly when tRump leaves office.

Finally, tRump has only one trick in his negotiating playbook: act like a bully and hope the other side falls for it.

40% of Vermont's exports go to Canada; 4% go to Mexico. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #1
Cadet Bone Spurs doesn't give a shit. lark Sep 2018 #2
Does Sanders give a shit about Vermont? The OP specifically mentions Bernie Sanders. . nt Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #4
How to Make Sense of the White House on NAFTA. Populist Protectionism or Not? TomCADem Sep 2018 #24
got a terrible flashback to the insane anti-trade narratives of 2016. JHan Sep 2018 #26
Bingo. paleotn Sep 2018 #14
Trump not going to kick Canada out. He can't kick Canada out. He would have tried if it served him. Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #3
Good summary, Bernardo. Agrees with what I've read... KY_EnviroGuy Sep 2018 #12
There is one thing that Canada and Russia have in common: luvtheGWN Sep 2018 #15
++++++ JHan Sep 2018 #27
He has also been threatening to leave the WTO MiniMe Sep 2018 #5
Yes. Despite WTO being good for the US. 6-front trade war not enough, he has to attack whole world Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #7
That's what dick-taters* do MiniMe Sep 2018 #9
And Canadians are quaking in their fucking toques knightmaar Sep 2018 #6
Not. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #8
AND soon to be toking in their toques. Crutchez_CuiBono Sep 2018 #13
Holding a big stick, someone needs to explain to tRump that... KY_EnviroGuy Sep 2018 #10
He never intended to include Canada. no_hypocrisy Sep 2018 #11
Leaving out Canada.... paleotn Sep 2018 #16
US runs a trade surplus with Canada (goods and services) & slight deficit if you only look at goods Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #17
In 2017, I believe it was a slight deficit paleotn Sep 2018 #18
Yes, indeed, can't be over emphasized: inextricably linked. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2018 #19
Funny thing: US taxpayers subsidize Big Dairy. THAT'S SOCIALISM!!!! Marcuse Sep 2018 #20
I wouldn't call the supply management system exactly capitalism. luvtheGWN Sep 2018 #22
It is seems to be a gentler capitalism wherein the smaller producers are not crushed by monopolists Marcuse Sep 2018 #25
Never make it past Congress NickB79 Sep 2018 #21
NAFTA was passed by congress rpannier Sep 2018 #23
It's not about what's best for the U.S., it's about Trump shoving people around. LastLiberal in PalmSprings Sep 2018 #28
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) tirebiter Sep 2018 #29
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