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Response to orangecrush (Original post)

Thu Sep 13, 2018, 08:03 PM

28. More on the study

I've been thinking about how the 3000 dead can be attributed to the botched response and wondered if the study shed any light, so I read some of it.


[link:http://publichealth.gwu.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/projects/PRstudy/Acertainment%20of%20the%20Estimated%20Excess%20Mortality%20from%20Hurricane%20Maria%20in%20Puerto%20Rico.pdf|

Didn't read all or even most. It's been a busy day. I learned some new things and have some new questions


The study covered September 2017 through February 2018. Power and water weren't fully restored. Is there any study that covers longer? Is 3000 a low number?

The study used mortality rates. It took into account displacement from Puerto Rico using transportation and airline data to calculate an excess mortality rate. I was surprised to learn 8% of the population migrated

A lot of the study deals with improving the death certification. Apparently certificates covered where the cause was directly caused by the storm, drowning, flooding, struck by debris, structural collapse etc. Thats why the official estimates were low (64). Apparently CDC has better guidance that wasn't used following natural disasters.

The excess mortality rate continued through the time covered by the study. 1271 through October, 2098 through December, and 2972 through February. That's about 900 every 2 months for the last periods covered. The rate doesn't seem to have dropped by the end of study.

The rate was highest in the lowest socioeconomic group. Also among older groups. It isn't clear to me how much of that is due to ability to migrate away vs the aid given to different areas.

Sorry if this is not interesting to anyone else or if I got any of this wrong. I don't do stastistics but I like numbers. Making it a reply in this thread because I can't start one yet.

It is a disgrace and the study confirms to me what I had thought. The bulk of the deaths were due to the horrible reponse.

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Midnightwalk Sep 2018 #28
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