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ProfessorGAC

(64,827 posts)

24. Fun With Numbers

Reply to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Tue May 5, 2020, 08:42 AM

May 2020

For weeks what's been publicized has been the floor number. Per this chart, the floor is now 98,000.
This latest number is the median of the model. The ceiling of the model is 240,000.
So, they did not nearly double the estimate. They bumped up the floor and median roughly 50%. The ceiling went up nearly 2x.
This has been a consistent complaint of mine regarding their model. First, I don't trust their assumptions (and there's a lot of them). Second, their reported value has been inconsistent as to which value in the model is being reported.
Last week the median was around 93k. Now, it's 135k. They reported they went up to 73k. That was the floor.
So this week they publish the median, last they published the floor.
No wonder people are confused by these projections.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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Highlight:

Key Scientific Group Doubles Its Projected US Death Toll from Pandemic to 135,000 [View all] SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 OP

We're not getting out of this without 240K dead. Minimum. Initech May 2020 #1

And, once again, this is because of the "re-open everything!!!" demands from conservatives... regnaD kciN May 2020 #5

Yup SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 #12

History and human stupidity repeat themselves NotHardly May 2020 #20

Don't Make any Plans Until About 2022 Stallion May 2020 #2

And that's assuming we still have anything left after this. Initech May 2020 #6

...Or Anybody has a Job Stallion May 2020 #9

Or there is anybody, period RVN VET71 May 2020 #23

The range they're now specifying is between 95,092 and 242,890... regnaD kciN May 2020 #3

Thanks! SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 #4

Hey, we're starting to roll bucolic_frolic May 2020 #7

But ya are, Blanch. Ya are. Squinch May 2020 #11

IHME. Squinch May 2020 #8

OMG yes. Pobeka May 2020 #13

Also, apparently, they include no epidemiological information in their modeling. Squinch May 2020 #14

It's true. I looked at their documentation and source code. Pobeka May 2020 #15

Whenever I have made fun of them, I have said that I am suspicious of Squinch May 2020 #16

So Trump and his economic lackey inside the white house were putting in there "own" turbinetree May 2020 #10

I use common sense and am staying inside. BigmanPigman May 2020 #17

They definitely don't give a shit if we live or die. nt SunSeeker May 2020 #19

I think that number is optimistic as to many Trump supporting nutjobs refuse to take this as cstanleytech May 2020 #18

We Will Be At 135,000 By July 4th. Then What? n/t DallasNE May 2020 #21

Blue Angels flyovers, of course! hatrack May 2020 #22

Fun With Numbers ProfessorGAC May 2020 #24