"Just a few years ago" climate crisis migrations out of the ME to Europe were just heating up, though this has been a long time building. Warring, disastrous government failures and takeovers, destruction of sustainable living conditions...

Of course fear and resistance in destination lands to the north would increase the appeal of leaders strong and ruthless enough to stop many millions of migrants, and thus of xenophobic extremism. Fwiw, that the ruthless far-right leaders already typical of these border nations would try to turn disaster to their advantage against neighboring states also seems entirely predictable, just not the details.