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Fiendish Thingy

(15,568 posts)

16. Bullshit. If you add an arbitrary 5% shy voter, +2-3% MOE, that means Trump is winning

Reply to nitpicker (Original post)

Wed Sep 2, 2020, 01:39 PM

Sep 2020

And has been all along, despite extremely stable polls in Biden’s favor. Accepting the Shy Voter theory means Trump will win an EV landslide, and the popular vote will be 1-2% for either candidate, instead of the 7-10% Biden victory all polls show.

Shy voter theory was questionable and unproven in 2016, utter nonsense in 2020.

Cloud Research polling isn’t even included in 538’s aggregate of polls.

I’ll stick with 538 and Rachel Bitecofer, thank you very much.

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22 replies

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Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact [View all] nitpicker Sep 2020 OP

I'm keeping track of the actual Trump voters in my area. idziak4ever1234 Sep 2020 #1

THe Hill! Me. Sep 2020 #2

yep. My WhiteTara Sep 2020 #12

YEP onetexan Sep 2020 #22

This is BS. The same argument as before (in 2016), and I'm hearing the same thing about ... SWBTATTReg Sep 2020 #3

I don't believe it. Trump voters are loud and in your face about their preference The Velveteen Ocelot Sep 2020 #4

My experience is that Trump supporters are like born again Evangelicals. Midnight Writer Sep 2020 #19

I'd say it more likely almost all Trump supporters are eager to express their support anyway brewens Sep 2020 #5

"THE RACE IS TIGHTENING! THE RACE IS TIGHTENING! Aristus Sep 2020 #6

Yeah, right... ZZenith Sep 2020 #7

Yes, the shame and secrecy of trump supporters d_b Sep 2020 #8

There was a recent NYT article explaning why this is likely bunk EarlG Sep 2020 #9

I read some excerpts from that article Gothmog Sep 2020 #21

Here's the thing. AleksS Sep 2020 #10

Oh, I suspect that Donnie will get a scattering of new voters Vogon_Glory Sep 2020 #14

Hiding in Moscow? GeorgeGist Sep 2020 #11

BY J.T. YOUNG, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR -- ??? marybourg Sep 2020 #13

More likely, the opposite is true. OAITW r.2.0 Sep 2020 #15

Bullshit. If you add an arbitrary 5% shy voter, +2-3% MOE, that means Trump is winning Fiendish Thingy Sep 2020 #16

Sounds like the new counter narrative to voter suppression ... imaginary girl Sep 2020 #17

lol, this was bullshit 4 years ago and remains bullshit today beachbumbob Sep 2020 #18

Why do I see Russia's hand in this talking point? Gothmog Sep 2020 #20