Prof Rachael Bitecofer election forecaster calls it a near lock for Biden [View all]

[Thekaspervote]

Following the 2018 midterm election Professor Bitecofer who called the blue wave house race correctly, right down to how many seats and which ones, quickly earned her the title “election whisperer.”

In this lengthy article she digs deep into how trump won in 16 and why, the myth of the swing voter and shows us the bigger picture behind all the confusing polls and statistics

If you would like to fully understand the 16 race and see why she feels so confident about our chances in 2020 take a look.

~snip~

today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate. If she’s right, we are now in a post-economy, post-incumbency, post record-while-in-office era of politics. Her analysis, as Bitecofer puts it with characteristic immodesty, amounts to nothing less than “flipping giant paradigms of electoral theory upside down.”

Bitecofer has already released her 2020 model, and is alone among election forecasters in giving the Democrats—the 270 electoral votes required to claim the presidency without a single toss-up state flipping their way.

Actually the article is incorrect in saying she is alone among election forecasters with this prediction. Moody Analytics which has called every election correctly, less 16 says it’s a win for Biden. They see it much the same as Professor Bitecofer as far as the numbers and where the election will be won, right down to the counties.

If you want to skip to the meat of the numbers in the Moody Analytics white paper, see page 8 titled what will happen in 2020..see link below

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

Here’s her breakdown of the EC

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast-comparison

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/us-presidential-election-update