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In the discussion thread: Hello Arizona.....any predictions [View all]

Response to lamp_shade (Reply #1)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 06:37 PM

3. Take a closer look at 538

Last edited Sun Mar 20, 2016, 11:38 PM - Edit history (1)

weighted polls going back almost 1 YEAR! Now compare it to this:

Bernie has been working AZ and working it early. I went to the first rally in Tucson and brought a friend who was leaning HC. I believe that after that he supported Bernie, but was in the how can he win camp. I will touch base with him before Tuesday.

Bernie has been running ads for weeks, HC has just started. HC will only be here Monday and has basically written off this Tuesday's primaries as not meaning that much in order to fundraise, which she needs to do desperately as we head to NY and CA. Bernie will win in Arizona. Bernie will take a MAJORITY of the latino vote. AZ is also a college State with campuses feeling the Bern in 3 major cities: Tempe, Tucson and Flagstaff. Sedona is total Bernie Country. This State works a little differently than most, as most rural areas of AZ are D, while a large chunk of Phoenix is to the religious right.

I would expect Sanders to win easily IF we GOTV! I expect Sanders to take UT by big margins and in ID HC may not even be viable. Tuesday will be good for us. Raul's endorsement helped a great deal. Gabby does have some meaning for HC, but this is pretty much a gun owner State much like VT. Ann Kirkpatrick will not hold much sway a s a super D.

My prediction: Early calls for wins for Bernie all 3 States, although AZ will be the last called (we are on PST now) and it will be the closest. I say in the end 54% Bernie 43% HC

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Funtatlaguy Mar 2016 OP
lamp_shade Mar 2016 #1
LineLineNew Reply Take a closer look at 538
SandersDem Mar 2016 #3
dbackjon Mar 2016 #5
world wide wally Mar 2016 #6
leftofcool Mar 2016 #2
Funtatlaguy Mar 2016 #4
DesertRat Mar 2016 #7
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