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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Places » U.S. » Florida (Group) » 2018 FL voter projection ... » Reply #1

Response to OrlandoDem2 (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2018, 01:08 AM

1. When the guy concedes he completely changed his forecasting methods at a late stage

 

I tend to pay very little attention to his current conclusions. The best handicappers/analysts I know found a logical reliable approach very early and have remained true to it, with minor adjustments.

I agree with Nate Silver that early voting numbers have a weak relationship to the final outcome, and very little predictive insight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

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OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 OP
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Awsi Dooger Oct 2018 #1
OrlandoDem2 Oct 2018 #2
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