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In the discussion thread: Who's your MP? [View all]

Response to T_i_B (Original post)

Sun May 7, 2017, 07:33 AM

15. Brendan O'Hara

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_O%27Hara

He came from nowhere (in historical party standing terms in this constituency) to win the seat with an 8,000-plus majority (44.3%) at the last election from three-term (and OK at a constituency level, but pretty useless in Parliament) Lib Dem Alan Reid (27.9%), who'd taken over the seat from another three-term Lib Dem in 2001.

O'Hara's been fine as far as I'm concerned. It's a tough call for any MP in this constituency, getting round a large, disparate and in parts rather remote area while maintaining a presence at Westminster.

The Tories were a distant third at the 2015 election, with 7,733 votes (14.9%) to Labour's fourth-placed 5,394 (10.4%).

The other parties have been slow to declare candidates, only Labour's Michael Kelly (who I've never seen or heard of before) standing against him so far.

His previous Lib Dem opponent Reid took the loss hard and has been fishing around for a political role at various levels since, and might have been in the running to contest his old seat, but he finally won an Argyll & Bute council seat in last week's election.

His previous Tory opponent, Alastair Redman (another who's been a regular contender for various roles in the area over the years), also won a seat in last week's election.

O'Hara's prospects depend on turnout, who decides to stand against him and who tactical voters decide has the best chance of defeating him.

In 2015, UKIP only got 1,311 votes (2.5%), so there's not much slack to gain from them for his future Tory opponent. The Lib Dems have historical strength in the constituency, but this seemed to evaporate at the last election, and there's been no sign of a resurgence at Scottish national level. They might be more likely Tory switchers, and possibly vice versa, but note that the Tories' total 2015 vote was less than O'Hara's majority over the Lib Dems with their sitting MP. It remains to be seen whether Labour voters would be willing to switch to Tory or Lib Dem in an effort to unseat him.

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 38 replies Author Time Post
T_i_B Apr 2015 OP
LeftishBrit Apr 2015 #1
T_i_B Apr 2015 #4
LeftishBrit Apr 2015 #5
T_i_B Apr 2015 #6
non sociopath skin Apr 2015 #2
muriel_volestrangler Apr 2015 #3
Anarcho-Socialist Apr 2015 #7
T_i_B May 2015 #8
LeftishBrit May 2015 #9
T_i_B May 2015 #10
T_i_B May 2015 #11
LeftishBrit May 2015 #12
T_i_B May 2015 #13
T_i_B May 2017 #14
LineReply Brendan O'Hara
Denzil_DC May 2017 #15
Denzil_DC Jun 2017 #21
LeftishBrit May 2017 #16
RogueTrooper May 2017 #17
RogueTrooper May 2017 #18
T_i_B May 2017 #19
T_i_B Jun 2017 #20
T_i_B Jun 2017 #25
LeftishBrit Jun 2017 #26
T_i_B Jun 2017 #27
T_i_B Oct 2019 #35
LeftishBrit Jun 2017 #22
T_i_B Jun 2017 #23
The King of Prussia Jun 2017 #24
T_i_B Dec 2017 #28
T_i_B Oct 2018 #29
The King of Prussia Oct 2018 #30
geardaddy Oct 2018 #31
LeftishBrit Dec 2018 #32
mwooldri Jan 2019 #33
T_i_B Oct 2019 #34
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2019 #36
Celerity Oct 2019 #37
LeftishBrit Nov 2019 #38
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