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Response to Denzil_DC (Original post)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 07:30 AM

1. A back-up analysis by some guy on Twitter:

Spar4 @Mckendrick36

Seeing as everyone is excited about #GeneralElection again I’m going in for the prediction game and why I think this might not be the slam dunk majority the Conservatives expect. Thread.

1. Firstly look at the map for 2017. Strongly leave voting areas are already Conservative territory. Piling up a larger majority in those areas doesn’t help in a FPTP system. They need to reach into metropolitan areas, areas more likely to be remain.

2. Adding to the uphill battle the Conservatives can expect to lose those seats in Scotland and looking previous voting patterns in the South-West some of those seats could also swing back to the Lib Dems. Places like St. Ives where they only had a 0.6% majority in 2017.

3. Then there’s places like Richmond Park where Zac Goldsmith has a majority of 0.1% or 45 votes. The Tories would have to win over new seats to make up for these losses just to stay where they are.

4. Next there is the issue with the expelled Conservatives. Will voters in those constituencies go for a new candidate knowing how their last choices were treated? If the expelled candidates still stand as independents it could further divide their vote.

5. There is the issue of putting all their eggs in the brexit basket and not having a broad manifesto or well defined policies. Plus there is a danger in relying on the turnout from leave voters.

6. Finally there is the assumption all leave voters will flock to the Conservatives, but the hardcore leave vote that is motivated are as livid as they were with May’s deal.

To sum up I expect another hung parliament except the DUP won’t be willing to prop up the government and no-one else will join them. Basically we’ll be in the same position as now.

Caveat: this depends on increasing turnout in under 30’s. So register to vote.

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Denzil_DC Oct 2019 OP
LineNew Reply A back-up analysis by some guy on Twitter:
Denzil_DC Oct 2019 #1
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2019 #4
BooScout Oct 2019 #2
Loki Liesmith Oct 2019 #3
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