(a lot longer and more detailed than the online version linked below).
Although I take any poll with a pinch of salt, its findings chime with my own gutfeel about a couple of issues - demographic concerns about immigration that will inevitably be the major cheap focus of an increasingly xenophobic "Leave" campaign despite all the high-faluting talk on other issues, and turnout on the day:
Immigration, holidays and the economy… what Britons really think about the EU
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The survey, which places the Remain and Leave campaigns neck and neck, was conducted before David Cameron completed his renegotiation of the terms of the UK’s membership of the EU. But it seems unlikely that a complicated “emergency brake” on in-work benefits for EU migrants will reassure many, such is the depth of antipathy towards a perceived Europe of open borders.
For well over half those questioned, immigration is among the three most important issues facing the UK. A clear majority believe that migration between the UK and the rest of the EU has been a bad thing for Britain. Broken down into specific areas, the picture becomes relentlessly and overwhelmingly negative.
A substantial majority believe that free movement within the EU has been bad for jobs, bad for the NHS, bad for the poor, bad for crime and bad for housing. There is a small hurrah for the greater cultural diversity that migrants bring. But even that note of optimism is overshadowed by the judgment that immigration has been bad for the nation’s “social values”. The borderless Schengen zone within the EU, now strained to breaking point by desperate refugees fleeing Syria, is viewed as a folly (though interestingly, there is huge support for a concerted EU-wide effort to solve the crisis). For the generation of British politicians who backed the expansion of the EU eastwards and embraced the free movement of labour throughout the union, there has been a catastrophic failure to convince the public that any of this was a good idea.
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It will also pit the young against the old and, to a striking degree, London against the regions. An instinctive Europhile is likely to be aged between 25 and 34 years old and living in London. He or she is likely to have at least one friend from another EU country, believe that immigration is a positive benefit and is apparently keener on holidaying in posh parts of France than the costas of Spain.
The actual issue of EU membership will never have been a big concern. In fact, the achilles heel of the Remain campaign could be an inability to get this type of voter to the polling booth. Only 45% of Londoners are certain they will cast a vote on 23 June, compared to 72% in the rest of the south east, where Leave supporters hold the whip hand. Overall, Outers are more likely to vote than Inners. Older, more committed and more passionate about their cause, they could yet profit from the relative apathy of their opponents to win a famous victory.
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