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http://www.businessinsider.com/southbays-vice-index-leads-pce-2013-10
Everyone has their little indulgences. For some, it's their morning Starbucks fix or a $2000 handbag. For others, it's hookers and blackjack.
And it's the latter that are most representative of consumer spending in the US economy, according to Andrew Zatlin of South Bay Research. Zatlin's one-man research consultancy based out of California, whose highly accurate, data-driven methods of forecasting jobs numbers have earned the title of 'The Moneyball of Economics' by the Wall Street Journal.
One of South Bay's products is the Vice Index, which according to Zatlin has an almost 90% statistical correlation with personal consumer spending and leads it by 4 months. The index measures spending on gambling and escorts, which, according to Zatlin, is a highly sensitive barometer for the 'wealth effect', or how rich we're feeling at any given time.
Zatlin's data for the index goes back 15 years and South Bay has been calculating the index for the last 2 years.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/southbays-vice-index-leads-pce-2013-10#ixzz2j8Cu0uVC
Everyone has their little indulgences. For some, it's their morning Starbucks fix or a $2000 handbag. For others, it's hookers and blackjack.
And it's the latter that are most representative of consumer spending in the US economy, according to Andrew Zatlin of South Bay Research. Zatlin's one-man research consultancy based out of California, whose highly accurate, data-driven methods of forecasting jobs numbers have earned the title of 'The Moneyball of Economics' by the Wall Street Journal.
One of South Bay's products is the Vice Index, which according to Zatlin has an almost 90% statistical correlation with personal consumer spending and leads it by 4 months. The index measures spending on gambling and escorts, which, according to Zatlin, is a highly sensitive barometer for the 'wealth effect', or how rich we're feeling at any given time.
Zatlin's data for the index goes back 15 years and South Bay has been calculating the index for the last 2 years.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/southbays-vice-index-leads-pce-2013-10#ixzz2j8Cu0uVC
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