HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Topics » Economy & Education » Personal Finance and Investing (Group) » Word to the wise: the cra... » Reply #5

Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 2, 2021, 07:58 PM

5. I'm not suggesting people buy at the peak -- I hope nobody is getting that out of what

I wrote. I was using the example I got as the worst case example of somebody picking the most unfortunate time to invest in recent decades, and where they end up now.

Yes, it can take decades sometimes to recover from some crashes

It took 25 years for the Dow to regain the peak before the 1929 crash,

It took 16 years for the Dow to get back to its 1966 high.

The S&P 500 didn't get back to its 1968 high until 1982 (14 years)

The Nikkei 225 was 38,916 12/29/89 close (it grew 6-fold during the 80's). Trough: 7,055 3/10/09 close, down 81.9%). It has made it above 30,000 recently but closed Dec 2 at 27,753. So that's way below its 12/29/89 high. After more than 31 years.

Some say the Nikkei doesn't apply to us because, you know, wink wink, they're different. Well at least since WWII they haven't elected an evil madman. Can't say the same about us.

There was a thread here about all that back in July 2020 --

I should add, all of the above are just the price. With dividends included, the recovery times would have been shorter.

I am near 70 yo and about 55% equities 45% fixed income because I don't think I have 15+ years to get back to zero, so I get it. And that "+" on "15+" is very significant. It could be 20, 25, 30, 35.... years. I don't want to risk that either. Otherwise I'd be 100% equities.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Please login to view edit histories.