The Viability of Germany’s Energiewende: Mark Jacobson Answers 3 Questions

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16. Not according to the data I have

The last 6 years of energy growth look like this:



In that time:

• Low-carbon energy added 198 mtoe of consumption, or 1.8% of the world's primary energy consumption in 2007.
  
• Fossil fuel energy added 991 mtoe of consumption, or 8.8% of the world's primary energy consumption in 2007.

The whole point of ramping up renewables is to make a difference to CO2 emissions. I just don't see how that can happen at this point, short of a global economic crash. Unless there is a crash, it looks to me as though fossil fuels are going to use their head start, massive installed base and easy availability to stay in the lead. As long as they remain available, somebody is going to use them, meaning that the situation will stay additive instead of displacive - at least until some sort of crisis changes the game.

The key to understanding this perspective is that the global economy represents global energy consumption. As long as economic growth is required, more energy has to be used. Energy consumption growth happens on top of the base of what's already being used. So long as the amount of renewable energy available falls short of the amount required for economic growth, fossil fuels will be used to close the gap - as well as to fuel the economic performance they fueled in the previous year. It can be no other way.

It's a Red Queen's race.