NASCAR hits 5 million miles on 15% Ethanol blend, with 20% less emissions...

[Bill USA]

38. 29 million Priuses needed to achieve Ethanol’s current GHG reduction. Cost: $232 Billion

[font size="3"]Using 34% GHG reduction (as per ANL), since ethanol currently provides about 11% of the current fuel supply for cars and light trucks

.... that comes to a GHG emissions reduction of 3.83% FOR THE ENTIRE FLEET of cars and light trucks. 3.83% of 250 million vehicles comes to about 9.6 million cars. The Prius achieves a reduction in gas consumption of 32.6% compared to a a car of comparable weight and payload (Toyota Corolla). So dividing 9.6 million by .326 gives you a little over 29 million Priuses to achieve the same aggregate GHG emissions reductions currently achieved by ethanol.

now how long do you think it will take to sell 9 million hybrids? A Prius costs about $8,000 more than a corolla. Let's say hybrids in general cost $5,000 to $8,000 more than a compaarable weight and payload car. Now, consider how World competition is going to impact our economy's ability to grow and to keep the unemployment rate below 6%. These things are important because when people have less job security they are much less prone to paying several thousand extra dollars for a car - those who can afford to buy a new car, that is.

So, estimates would vary but let's just say it will take 20 years to get to 29 million hybrids (that would take 13% growth in annual sales for 13 yrs, followed by 7 yrs of annual sales growth of 49% to 70% (because of hybrids falling out of service) - so 20 years is a pretty optimistc number, requiring very strong sales growth. It could easily take longer. During that time ethanol would be racking up GHG emissions reductions every year and if we were to take steps to optimize cars for ethanol use, the GHG emissions reductions would be climbing, per unit of ethanol, while the amount of ethanol replacing gas would have been growing..


Prius marginal cost $8,000, multiplied by 29 million equals[font size="4"] $232 Billion[/font].

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