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Response to GliderGuider (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 10, 2014, 12:28 PM

3. That's not particularly difficult.

All you have to do is go far enough back to look at whether what he claimed turned out to be true. He is on firmer ground when discussing the environmental impact... but as a predictor of production? Not so much.

His 2011 "Will Natural Gas Fuel America in the 21st Century" is barely three years old and it's already clear that his assumptions/predictions are off.

In the section on "A reality check on the EIA"... he found it ridiculous to assume that shale gas production would climb to 45% of production in 2035 or that annual production (then at around 5tcf/a) would climb as high as 10 tcf/a by their 2028 prediction.

In reality. It was wise to question their predictions because they were far off...

... the only problem with that is that they were far off in the other direction. It's already over 10 trillion cubic feet per year just three years into that 20+ year estimate. Similarly, what was 20% of production at the time... he has already had to confess (in the 2013 piece you cite) that it was 40% last year.

And let's keep in mind... the real limiting factor right now (apart from the obvious environmental concerns) is that the US can't export much natural gas. If prices doubled or tripled (still well below global prices), production would skyrocket.


Here's that EIA prediction that he attempted to refute in 2011. You like charting data... where are we now on that graph?



Then you might review "The North American Red Queen: Our Natural Gas Treadmill" thread from TOD back in 2006 that was based on his presentation to ASPO.

Oh... and let us not forget his predictions for Canadian oil sands production a bit less than a decade ago.

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nationalize the fed Sep 2014 OP
FBaggins Sep 2014 #1
GliderGuider Sep 2014 #2
LineLineLineNew Reply That's not particularly difficult.
FBaggins Sep 2014 #3
GliderGuider Sep 2014 #4
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