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Response to kristopher (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:05 PM

6. Good modeling on the OP's question

This study from the Journal of Power Sources does a good job of researching the question posed in the OP. It's open access paper if you'd like to look it over. One big difference to consider is that the capacity factor for Germany's offshore wind is as high as 65% iirc.

Cost-minimized combinations of wind power, solar power and electrochemical storage, powering the grid up to 99.9% of the time

Abstract
We model many combinations of renewable electricity sources (inland wind, offshore wind, and photovoltaics) with electrochemical storage (batteries and fuel cells), incorporated into a large grid system (72 GW). The purpose is twofold: 1) although a single renewable generator at one site produces intermittent power, we seek combinations of diverse renewables at diverse sites, with storage, that are not intermittent and satisfy need a given fraction of hours. And 2) we seek minimal cost, calculating true cost of electricity without subsidies and with inclusion of external costs. Our model evaluated over 28 billion combinations of renewables and storage, each tested over 35,040 h (four years) of load and weather data. We find that the least cost solutions yield seemingly-excessive generation capacity—at times, almost three times the electricity needed to meet electrical load. This is because diverse renewable generation and the excess capacity together meet electric load with less storage, lowering total system cost. At 2030 technology costs and with excess electricity displacing natural gas, we find that the electric system can be powered 90%–99.9% of hours entirely on renewable electricity, at costs comparable to today's—but only if we optimize the mix of generation and storage technologies.


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775312014759

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nationalize the fed Dec 2015 OP
Sherman A1 Dec 2015 #1
kristopher Dec 2015 #2
LineLineNew Reply Good modeling on the OP's question
kristopher Dec 2015 #6
drm604 Dec 2015 #14
SoLeftIAmRight Dec 2015 #3
packman Dec 2015 #4
ffr Dec 2015 #8
Matariki Dec 2015 #5
Dont call me Shirley Dec 2015 #7
diverdownjt Dec 2015 #10
Dont call me Shirley Dec 2015 #11
commercialgrade Dec 2015 #9
drm604 Dec 2015 #12
NNadir Dec 2015 #13
gmoney Dec 2015 #15
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