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In the discussion thread: Enough oil no longer the problem [View all]

Response to 4dsc (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 2, 2013, 08:24 AM

22. I guess you can say we hit peak oil and decline

Since oil is found in limited amounts it makes sense to think eventually we will hit a peak in oil production. Evidently to produce x quantity of oil at the surface there must be x multiplied by a functio of y volume of oil left underground. We must describe x as a function of y which likely depends on the actual environment in which the oil is found. Since there are many different environments this would be sigma x = sigma of many different functions of many different y's. sigma y would be the amount left in the ground at any given time.

The above seems to me to be rock solid math. Therefore we can conclude the decay function is likely exponential but may turn hyperbolic over time. This implies we will never run out of oil but reaching peak oil is an absolute certainty.

Since the y volumes of oil are found in different environments and the oils are of different qualities then we can also pose a law which states some kinds of environments and some kinds of oil will reach peak production before others do. This seems banal but it seems to point that the most desirable oils coming from the environments which are easier to exploit will peak first.

Therefore we can also conclude the oil price influences the peaks for these different oils. And this implies with a near absolute certainty that oil prices will rise as the peak is approached.

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Nasty Jack Mar 2013 OP
Champion Jack Mar 2013 #1
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Spider Jerusalem Mar 2013 #3
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BlueStreak Mar 2013 #4
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Socialistlemur Sep 2013 #25
BlueStreak Sep 2013 #27
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Spider Jerusalem Oct 2013 #32
Socialistlemur Sep 2013 #24
happyslug Mar 2013 #15
TooManyPeople Mar 2013 #16
golfguru Apr 2013 #17
markboxer Apr 2013 #18
golfguru Apr 2013 #19
Bay Boy May 2013 #20
Socialistlemur Sep 2013 #23
4dsc Aug 2013 #21
LineLineReply I guess you can say we hit peak oil and decline
Socialistlemur Sep 2013 #22
PATRICK Oct 2013 #28
Socialistlemur Oct 2013 #30
EconGreen Jan 2014 #33
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