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In the discussion thread: Fewer and Fewer Americans Own Guns [View all]

Response to benEzra (Reply #5)

Thu May 28, 2015, 11:46 AM

24. What reputable poll backs up gallup?

ezra: At most, this tracks gun-owner trust in pollsters from Chicago.

Gong, wrong; since Pew backs up what GSS has proferred, quite closely, you & gallup are on the outlier side. Unless Pew is largely concentrated in Chicago, gong again.
Note in graph below, how gallup & gss actually do essentially agree, for ~10 year period, ~1990 thru 2000, where they both show a sharp decline in HHld gun ownership rates. The very same time period which showed the sharpest decline in violent crime rates.


The Pew Research Center has tracked gun ownership since 1993, and our {PEW} surveys largely confirm the {GSS} General Social Survey trend. In our Dec1993 survey, 45% reported having a gun in their household; in early 1994, the GSS found 44% saying they had a gun in their home. A Jan2013 Pew survey found 33% saying they had a gun, rifle or pistol in their home, as did 34% in the 2012 wave of {GSS}. http://www.people-press.org/2013/03/12/section-3-gun-ownership-trends-and-demographics/ --- pg4;

As a democrat, how have you missed the alleged rightwing bias shown by gallup? as in over representing republicans & under repping dems. Some of these are election polls, but we can assume they are drawn from similar samples & weights as other gallup polls: As the blogger Kos reported, in June 2003, Gallup's CEO James Clifton gave $2,000 to a very right-wing Republican who was running for Senate, Herman Cain. For the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Gallup correctly predicted the winner, but was rated 17th out of 23 polling organizations in terms of the precision of its pre-election polls relative to the final results.

Frum: The average Democratic advantage in party identification in the Gallup Poll since June, +6, is substantially smaller than the average in every other major national poll. In fact, no other major poll has shown that small a Democratic advantage even once during this time period. This is significant, of course, because party identification is very strongly correlated with opinions on other questions such as presidential approval, attitudes toward health care reform, and the generic ballot question. For example, Gallup recently showed Republicans leading on its generic ballot question for the first time this year. Of the other major polls that have asked this question, all except Rasmussen have continued to show a Democratic lead on the generic ballot question.
Now there is nothing unusual about “house effects” in polls but until fairly recently Gallup was considered to be in the mid-range when it came to house effects. Based on these recent results, however, it appears that Gallup now has a significant Republican lean compared with most other national polls. And because of its prestige and the frequency of its polls, Gallup also has a disproportionate influence on public and elite perceptions of the state of public opinion on major issues.

http://www.frumforum.com/does-gallup-poll-have-a-pro-gop-bias/

... In 2012, Gallup's final election survey had Mitt Romney at 49% and Barack Obama at 48%, compared to the final election results showing Obama with 51.1% to Romney's 47.2%. Poll analyst Nate Silver found that Gallup's results were the least accurate of the 23 major polling firms Silver analyzed, having the highest incorrect average of being 7.2 points away from the final result.
.. In 2012, poll analyst Mark Blumenthal criticized Gallup for a slight but routine under-weighting of black and Hispanic Americans that led to an approximately 2% shift of support away from Obama. At the same time, Blumenthal commended Gallup for its "admirable commitment to transparency" and suggested that other polling firms disclose their raw data and methodologies.
.. In 2013, the accuracy of Gallup polling on religious faith was questioned. Gallup's polling on religiosity U.S. has produced results somewhat different from other studies on religious issues, including a 2012 study by the Pew Research Center, which found that those who lack a religious affiliation were a fast-growing demographic group in the U.S. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup_(company)


ezra: The GSS data is also wildly divergent from other gun-ownership metrics that are less prone to underreporting, such as NICS data, carry licence data, and surveys that at least attempt to preserve anonymity.

Yet GSS is corroborated by PEW quite closely, while Gallup has been the erratic one over the past 20 years.
You posting from Cairo, ezra?

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LineLineReply What reputable poll backs up gallup?
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