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In the discussion thread: Fewer and Fewer Americans Own Guns [View all]

Response to jimmy the one (Reply #24)

Thu May 28, 2015, 01:30 PM

25. more bad for gallup

Another source calling a high republican bias for gallup, during the 2012 Obama - Romney election. We assume this bias would, or could apply to gallup's other polls, where the bias might not be measured due no other pollsters to compare with, or few.

---------# of polls.. avg error... bias .......
Pew Research 2 ...... 1.5 ...... R +1.1 ... live phone
Gallup ..........11 ..... 7.2 ...... R +7.2 ... live phone

It was one of the best-known polling firms, however, that had among the worst results. In late October, Gallup consistently showed Mr. Romney ahead by about six points among likely voters, far different from the average of other surveys. Gallupís final poll of the election, which had Mr. Romney up by one point, was slightly better, but still identified the wrong winner in the election. Gallup has now had three poor elections in a row. In 2008, their polls overestimated Mr. Obamaís performance, while in 2010, they overestimated how well Republicans would do in the race for the United States House.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

So you can't say, by these figures, that pew is biased to the dems, since they're not, they're also slightly biased +1.1 to repubs, while gallup is biased right by 6.1 more pts, to 7.2. This would account for discrepancies in our gun ownership poll graphs above.

Polling a lot higher for one candidate during the campaign & then 'suddenly' at the end of it tighten up the race, as in gallup drawing it to 1 pt, obviously can be a clever tactic to try to influence people prior to the election, without suffering loss of prestige. They have new 'rules' to expose this chicanery. Good for us, bad for gallup.

my previous post: blogger Kos reported, in June 2003, Gallup's CEO James Clifton gave $2,000 to a very right-wing Republican who was running for Senate, Herman Cain.

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jimmy the one May 2015 #24
LineLineLineReply more bad for gallup
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