Boxing: 4-27 thru 5-5

[H2O Man]

3. Cotto vs Mayweather

This is the first of a series of posts that I'll be doing on the upcoming "super fight."

Last Friday evening, during the ESPN FNFs, Teddy Atalas was asked if Cotto, being the naturally bigger man, enjoyed an advantage? Teddy pointed out that being bigger did not translate into Cotto's being faster, or harder to hit. This is, of course, Teddy hitting the nail on the head. More, Floyd is both taller, and has a longer reach, than Cotto.

(Speaking of Teddy Atlas, my son is bringing me to the May 18 card in Albany, NY, which will be carried by ESPN. The last time that D and I hung out with Teddy before a card, the ESPN crew invited us to sit with them at ringside. We had a group of relatives & friends waiting for us inside, so we felt obligated to decline the invitation. We aren't bringing anyone else this time.)

What Cotto does have in his favor -- compared to other Mayweather opponents, but not Floyd -- is his new trainer. He has the ex-Cuban amateur boxing coach, who worked with Miguel for his last fight, the return bout with Margarito. This guy combines the best of "old school" and modern training techniques; also, he has a solid grasp of what Cotto does best.

When Miguel Cotto was a contender, he was primarily a boxer, who had punching power -- most significantly, the left hook to the body. But promoters and the media began selling him as a deadly knockout artist. Even before the brutal loss to Margarito, Cotto had been hurt in a couple fights where he had no need to .... but by trying to be that deadly knockout artist, he made himself vulnerable. And even in his loss to Pacquiao, Cotto fought wrong -- he pursued the faster PacMan, and took a beating in doing so -- staggered, decked, and cut up badly. By the time he adjusted, and attempted to box, it was too late.

Both of Cotto's loses involved his taking terrible physical punishment. Margarito had the loaded hand wraps; Manny forced Cotto to fight at a "catch-weight," a new concept that PacMan's team has introduced to the sport. That difference in weight-loss almost certainly wasn't the main "cause" of Cotto's loss -- Manny was -- but it definitely made a big difference.

Also (as again pointed out by Teddy Atlas numerous times in recent years), the loss to Margarito did severe psychological damage to Miguel Cotto. It created a level of self-doubt that cast a shadow over all of his fights ....up until his avenging the "loss" when he faced Margarito the second time.

Hence, with the exception of some brittle scar-tissue (especially at the corner of his right eye brow), the Cotto that enters the ring this weekend should actually be Miguel at the very peak of his career. Obviously, I am going by the film I see on HBO's 24/7 series, and what I read on the internet. (Both the ESPN and Yahoo boxing sites have one or more intelligent, insightful writers. And a few other sites are valuable, too, although I will humbly submit that DU's boxing expert is the best in the business.) In my opinion, Cotto poses more of a threat to Mayweather than anyone else active today, and I absolutely include Manny Pacquiao in that assessment.

Cotto & his trainer know that Floyd is not planning to either dance around, as he did years ago, or hang back to the ropes, like a spider in its web, as he did against Hatton and Oscar de la Hoya. Rather, he will approach this fight in much the manner he did with Ortiz, in his last fight. This includes stepping side-to-side, to find openings, and then firing hard one-two combinations with his feet firmly planted. Team Cotto knows that Floyd is far stronger, and hits harder, than most critics and previous foes believed. So look for Cotto to "box" -- not to make wide circles inside the ring, or to be straight-forward-aggressive. No, he'll move with Floyd.

In moving with Mayweather, Cotto increases his ability to avoid getting hit as solidly. Also, because Floyd tends to throw one-two combinations -- try to think of the last time Floyd threw a four (or more) punch combination -- Miguel get set to return fire. Look for him to go primarily to the belly and chest (and, of course, that left hook to the liver), because no one can hit Floyd with head shots early in a fight. The only reason to start up top with punches would be to get Floyd to bend to his right side to avoid getting hit: this tends to expose the left side.

Cotto knows he cannot match Floyd in hand-speed. So what he has to do is anticipate, and time Mayweather. If he can do this in the first five or six rounds, he has a chance to be able to crowd Floyd into the ropes; there, he'll go from the body to the head with combinations. If you watch him training on 24/7, you'll see him preparing to do just this: note how he "lifts" his punches, both in shadow-boxing, and on the bag. That's extremely important.

Finally, Paul Malignaggi has said -- accurately -- that Cotto is the "dirtiest" fighter he's ever faced. When Zab Judah stunned Cotto in the first round of their fight, Miguel didn't clinch -- he threw a series of nut-punches that seriously hurt Zab, and sapped his strength. While he is not as cagey as B-Hop in illegal tactics, Cotto will not hesitate to foul any opponent. This, of course, brings to mind what happened to Victor Ortiz when he purposely fouled Floyd last year. It could get really ugly -- and fast -- come Saturday night.

Next, I'll focus on what to expect fromn Floyd on Saturday. I think it makes for easier reading when I make a series of posts, rather than a single, long one. I'd appreciate if you would let me know what you think .... is what I'm piosting here of interest, does it make sense, and do you find yourself thinking, "okay, I've seen Cotto do that," etc.