The bias that can cause catastrophe

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2. bad example. this fallacy comes up in poker allll the time.

poker players make a decision based on the odds, and the result may hinge on the next card. there's a strong tendency to think you made a bad decision if that card works against you, even though the odds were in your favor.

but that's a clean example, it's just math.

the medical field is more problematic, because it most certainly *is* possible that the doctor was at fault. some of the poor outcomes are simply based on the patient and information that cannot be ascertained prior to or even during surgery. however, some of the poor outcomes may be due to improper hygiene on the part of the doctor/team/facility, or perhaps the doctor missed something that a different doctor might not have.

the more automated the procedure is, the more judging by outcomes is a fallacy. the more there's room for doctor error, the more judging by outcomes makes sense.