Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
SOON...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...27.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River
(snip)
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on
Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana
coast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.
Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
(snip)
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.
Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday
across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
(snip)
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