Today's PredictWise - 2016 Democratic Nomination - Hillary 82% - Bernie 17%

[Jarqui]

13. You were suggesting that I could not recognize that Sanders and Obama were not the same

candidate.

There are lots of differences between them. Color is just one.

However, we are seeing some things that are similar in 2016 to 2008.

Obama's campaign was in roughly the same spot as Sanders is now. The 2008 Iowa win catapulted Obama into being a serious contender - the graphs show it. A 2016 win in Iowa and NH would do something similar for Bernie - in terms of making the primary competitive - which to date in the polls, it really hasn't been until maybe recently.

Would it be as much as what we saw with Obama? I really don't know. Maybe. Maybe not. With all the money Bernie has, it will just turn this primary into a competitive contest. I suspect Clinton will still have the advantage and be in a better position than she was in 2008.

A key difference is that to me, Obama pretty much snatched the nomination on Super Tuesday. To some extent, he took the Clinton campaign by surprise. I think that's going to be tougher to do this time around. Of course, if Hillary keeps marching Chelsea out to lie for her, that could change in a hurry.